What a difference 16 years makes

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What a difference 16 years makes

Or, if 40 years of cooling were wrong and 16 years of a plateau is not enough to to establish a trend, how is it the exceptional 16 years of warming do constitute a trend?

www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2217286/Global-warming-stopped-16-years-ago-reveals-Met-Office-report-quietly-released--chart-prove-it.html

Global warming stopped 16 years ago, reveals Met Office report quietly released... and here is the chart to prove it

  • The figures reveal that from the beginning of 1997 until August 2012 there was no discernible rise in aggregate global temperatures
  • This means that the ‘pause’ in global warming has now lasted for about the same time as the previous period when temperatures rose, 1980 to 1996

By David Rose

|

The world stopped getting warmer almost 16 years ago, according to new data released last week. 

The figures, which have triggered debate among climate scientists, reveal that from the beginning of 1997 until August 2012, there was no discernible rise in aggregate global temperatures.

This means that the ‘plateau’ or ‘pause’ in global warming has now lasted for about the same time as the previous period when temperatures rose, 1980 to 1996. Before that, temperatures had been stable or declining for about 40 years.

 global temperature changes

global temperature changes

 

  The new figures mean that the ¿pause¿ in global warming has now lasted for about the same time as the previous period when temperatures rose, 1980 to 1996. This picture shows an iceberg melting in Eastern Greenland

Research: The new figures mean that the 'pause' in global warming has now lasted for about the same time as the previous period when temperatures rose, 1980 to 1996. This picture shows an iceberg melting in Eastern Greenland

The new data, compiled from more than 3,000 measuring points on land and sea, was issued  quietly on the internet, without any media fanfare, and, until today, it has not been reported.

This stands in sharp contrast  to the release of the previous  figures six months ago, which went only to the end of 2010 – a very warm year.

Ending the data then means it is possible to show a slight warming trend since 1997, but 2011 and the first eight months of 2012 were much cooler, and thus this trend is erased.

 

 

More...

Some climate scientists, such as Professor Phil Jones, director of the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia, last week dismissed the significance of the plateau, saying that 15 or 16 years is too short a period from which to draw conclusions.

Others disagreed. Professor Judith Curry, who is the head of the climate science department at America’s prestigious Georgia Tech university, told The Mail on Sunday that it was clear that the computer models used to predict future warming were ‘deeply flawed’.

Even Prof Jones admitted that he and his colleagues did not understand the impact of ‘natural variability’ – factors such as long-term ocean temperature cycles and changes in the output of the sun. However, he said he was still convinced that the current decade would end up significantly warmer than the previous two.

 Professor Phil Jones Dr Judith A Curry  

Disagreement: Professor Phil Jones, left, from the University of East Anglia, dismissed the significance of the plateau. Professor Judith Curry, right, from Georgia Tech university in America, disagreed, saying the computer models used to predict future warming were ‘deeply flawed’

  Since 1880 the world has warmed by 0.75 degrees Celsius. This image shows floating icebergs in Greenland

Warmer: Since 1880 the world has warmed by 0.75 degrees Celsius. This image shows floating icebergs in Greenland

The regular data collected on global temperature is called Hadcrut 4, as it is jointly issued by the Met Office’s Hadley Centre and Prof Jones’s Climatic Research Unit.

Since 1880, when worldwide industrialisation began to gather pace and reliable statistics were first collected on a global scale, the world has warmed by 0.75 degrees Celsius.

Some scientists have claimed that this rate of warming is set to increase hugely without drastic cuts to carbon-dioxide emissions, predicting a catastrophic increase of up to a further five degrees  Celsius by the end of the century.

The new figures were released as the Government made clear that it would ‘bend’ its own  carbon-dioxide rules and build new power stations to try to combat the threat of blackouts. 

At last week’s Conservative Party Conference, the new Energy Minister, John Hayes, promised that ‘the high-flown theories of bourgeois Left-wing academics will not override the interests of ordinary people who need fuel for heat, light and transport – energy policies, you might say, for the many, not the few’ – a pledge that has triggered fury from green activists, who fear reductions in the huge subsidies given to wind-turbine firms.

Flawed science costs us dearly

 

Here are three not-so trivial questions you probably won’t find in your next pub quiz. First, how much warmer has the world become since a) 1880 and  b) the beginning of 1997? And what has this got to do with your ever-increasing energy bill?

You may find the answers to the first two surprising. Since 1880, when reliable temperature records began to be kept across most of the globe, the world has warmed by about 0.75 degrees Celsius.

From the start of 1997 until August 2012, however, figures released last week show the answer is zero: the trend, derived from the aggregate data collected from more than 3,000 worldwide measuring points, has been flat.

  News that the world has got no warmer for the past 16 years will come as something of a shock. This picture shows drifting ice in Canada

Surprising: News that the world has got no warmer for the past 16 years will come as something of a shock. This picture shows drifting ice in Canada

Not that there has been any  coverage in the media, which usually reports climate issues assiduously, since the figures were quietly release online with no accompanying press release – unlike six months ago when they showed a slight warming trend.

The answer to the third question is perhaps the most familiar. Your bills are going up, at least in part, because of the array of ‘green’ subsidies being provided to the renewable energy industry, chiefly wind.

They will cost the average household about £100 this year. This is set to rise steadily higher – yet it  is being imposed for only one  reason: the widespread conviction, which is shared by politicians of all stripes and drilled into children at primary schools, that, without drastic action to reduce carbon-dioxide emissions, global warming is certain soon to accelerate, with truly catastrophic consequences by the end of the century – when temperatures could be up to five degrees higher.

Hence the significance of those first two answers. Global industrialisation over the past 130 years has made relatively little difference.

And with the country committed by Act of Parliament to reducing CO2 by 80 per cent by 2050, a project that will cost hundreds of billions, the news that the world has got no warmer for the past 16 years comes as something of a shock.

It poses a fundamental challenge to the assumptions underlying every aspect of energy and climate change policy.

This ‘plateau’ in rising temperatures does not mean that global warming won’t at some point resume.

  Global warming has been caused in part by the CO2 emitted by fossil fuels. This image shows smoke billowing out of a power station

Damage: Global warming has been caused in part by the CO2 emitted by fossil fuels. This image shows smoke billowing out of a power station

But according to increasing numbers of serious climate scientists, it does suggest that the computer models that have for years been predicting imminent doom, such as  those used by the Met Office and the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, are flawed, and that the climate is far more complex than the models assert.

‘The new data confirms the existence of a pause in global warming,’ Professor Judith Curry, chair of the School of Earth and Atmospheric Science at America’s Georgia Tech university, told me yesterday.

‘Climate models are very complex, but they are imperfect and incomplete. Natural variability  [the impact of factors such as long-term temperature cycles in the oceans and the output of the sun] has been shown over the past two decades to have a magnitude that dominates the greenhouse warming effect.

‘It is becoming increasingly apparent that our attribution of warming since 1980 and future projections of climate change needs to consider natural internal variability as a factor of fundamental importance.’

Professor Phil Jones, director of the Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia, who found himself at the centre of the ‘Climategate’ scandal over leaked emails three years ago, would not normally be expected to agree with her. Yet on two important points, he did.

The data does suggest a plateau, he admitted, and without a major El Nino event – the sudden, dramatic warming of the southern Pacific which takes place unpredictably and always has a huge effect on global weather – ‘it could go on for a while’.

Like Prof Curry, Prof Jones also admitted that the climate models were imperfect: ‘We don’t fully understand how to input things like changes in the oceans, and because we don’t fully understand it you could say that natural variability is now working to suppress the warming. We don’t know what natural variability is doing.’

  The evidence is beginning to suggest that global warming may be happening much slower than the catastrophists have claimed ¿ a conclusion with enormous policy implications for politicians at Westminster, pictured

Headache: The evidence is beginning to suggest that global warming may be happening much slower than the catastrophists have claimed - a conclusion with enormous policy implications for politicians at Westminster, pictured

Yet he insisted that 15 or 16 years is not a significant period: pauses of such length had always been expected, he said.

Yet in 2009, when the plateau was already becoming apparent and being discussed by scientists, he told a colleague in one of the Climategate emails: ‘Bottom  line: the “no upward trend” has to  continue for a total of 15 years before we get worried.’

But although that point has now been passed, he said that he hadn’t changed his mind about the  models’ gloomy predictions:  ‘I still think that the current decade which began in 2010 will be warmer by about 0.17 degrees than the previous one, which was warmer than the Nineties.’

Only if that did not happen would he seriously begin to  wonder whether something more profound might be happening. In other words, though five years ago he seemed to be saying that 15 years without warming would make him ‘worried’, that period has now become 20 years.

Meanwhile, his Met Office  colleagues were sticking to their guns. A spokesman said: ‘Choosing a starting or end point on short-term scales can be very misleading. Climate change can only be detected from multi-decadal timescales due to the inherent variability in the climate system.’

He said that for the plateau to last any more than 15 years was ‘unlikely’. Asked about a prediction that the Met Office made in 2009 – that three of the ensuing five years would set a new world temperature record – he made no comment. With no sign of a strong El Nino next year, the prospects of this happening are remote.

Why all this matters should be obvious. Every quarter, statistics on the economy’s output and  models of future performance have a huge impact on our lives. They trigger a range of policy responses from the Bank of England and the Treasury, and myriad decisions by private businesses.

Yet it has steadily become apparent since the 2008 crash that both the statistics and the modelling are extremely unreliable. To plan the future around them makes about as much sense as choosing a wedding date three months’ hence on the basis of a long-term weather forecast.

Few people would be so foolish. But decisions of far deeper and more costly significance than those derived from output figures have been and are still being made on the basis of climate predictions, not of the next three months but of the coming century – and this despite the fact that Phil Jones and his colleagues now admit they do not understand the role of ‘natural variability’.

The most depressing feature  of this debate is that anyone who questions the alarmist, doomsday scenario will automatically be labelled a climate change ‘denier’, and accused of jeopardising the future of humanity.

So let’s be clear. Yes: global warming is real, and some of it at least has been caused by the CO2 emitted by fossil fuels. But the evidence is beginning to suggest that it may be happening much slower than the catastrophists have claimed – a conclusion with enormous policy implications.

 

 


Vastet
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Bullshit. The average

Bullshit. The average temperature is almost a full degree warmer than anytime in the 20th century, and record levels of ice melt from both poles has been recorded for consecutive years. A fucking sailboat just made it through the North West passage this year for the first time in all recorded history. You know, the place that even trained and experienced sailors in royal navies couldn't get through, and died trying on more than one occasion.
Everythings happening MUCH faster than so-called catatrophists claimed 15 years ago when they figured on an ice free North pole in the summer by 2050. Current estimates have pushed it to 2020 or sooner.

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Vastet wrote:
Bullshit. The average temperature is almost a full degree warmer than anytime in the 20th century, and record levels of ice melt from both poles has been recorded for consecutive years. A fucking sailboat just made it through the North West passage this year for the first time in all recorded history. You know, the place that even trained and experienced sailors in royal navies couldn't get through, and died trying on more than one occasion. Everythings happening MUCH faster than so-called catatrophists claimed 15 years ago when they figured on an ice free North pole in the summer by 2050. Current estimates have pushed it to 2020 or sooner.

I am not certain to whom the bullshit can be directed as these two are the sources of record for the claims of warming. If one rejects these sources then one rejects two of the three major sources of the melting claim. One of these was the subject of "climategate" last year with the leaked emails. This report leaves us with NASA as the only other credible source to comment upon this one.

 

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Ah, "climategate" - a Fox

Ah, "climategate" - a Fox News created scandal much like the Wars on Christmas and Easter.

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This is sightly to one side

 

of the OP but related. As part of its war on climate change state governments here in Oz subsidized solar installations on domestic rooftops, a move which ended as the GFC bit deeper. But far from killing the local PV market, the companies that had sprung up drove the prices down in their battle for survival. As a result, the technology is so affordable that domestic and small commercial investment since subsidies stopped has grown strongly and there are now nearly one million homes in Oz with solar (22.5m population). The drivers here are loads of sun and increasing power bills rather than heartbreak over the environment. Regardless, PV capacity is 50 per cent of the vast Snowy Mountains Hydro station and if solar could be stored for long periods at an acceptable cost the changeover would accelerate.

On the OP, my personal environmental worries are led by habitat loss. I don't think there's a remedy. The drive to lucrative monoculture is pervasive. Borneo for instance, is well on the way to having no rainforests at all, having replaced most of its old growth with palm oil plantations in just 20 years. All other countries are the same. In the US there's the corn belt, in Australia, the wheat belt. A single crop for thousands upon thousands of square kilometres. There's no chance this is going to stop. When it's all gone and the species are lost, the river plains dead from salinity, the aquifers dry, we'll be moaning like howler monkeys but no one cares enough today to change their ways. Ocean acidification is another big worry. Hopefully I'll be dead by the time the seas turn to wormwood and our descendants get to enjoy the delights of planetary armageddon.  

I think warming is just a single, small part of the shit we are getting ourselves into. Even without warming we are fucked. The sight of David Attenborough with tears in his eyes in some news report over the wholesale obliteration of the natural environment said it all for me. One of DA's early books was The First Edens in which he outlined the past paradises humans have blithely fucked. Greece, Italy, Anatolia, North Africa, etc, etc. Thriving ecosystems reduced by deforestation and erosion to rock, scrub and goats. It's negative to observe this but I think such is the entire planet's future. I think it's rather funny that our in-group selfishness (love) will be the instrument by which we milk spaceship Earth completely dry. 

 

"Experiments are the only means of knowledge at our disposal. The rest is poetry, imagination." Max Planck


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"I am not certain to whom

"I am not certain to whom the bullshit can be directed as these two are the sources of record for the claims of warming. "

Yeah right there's only two sources suggesting global warming. Try tens of thousands of sources. Join the 21st century. You seem to have been left in the 70's.

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Vastet wrote:"I am not

Vastet wrote:
"I am not certain to whom the bullshit can be directed as these two are the sources of record for the claims of warming. " Yeah right there's only two sources suggesting global warming. Try tens of thousands of sources. Join the 21st century. You seem to have been left in the 70's.

Dang. You did it again.

I think the bigger question about global warming is where the source of it is coming from...

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jcgadfly wrote:
Ah, "climategate" - a Fox News created scandal much like the Wars on Christmas and Easter.

Absolutely! And if you defend the integrity of the CRU against the memo leaks then you should defending the integrity of the CRU in releasing this report showing 16 years of no increase.

For a laugh you should be watching Fox News changing sides and defending the CRU because of this report.

 

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Atheistextremist wrote:
Hopefully I'll be dead by the time the seas turn to wormwood and our descendants get to enjoy the delights of planetary armageddon.

Or perhaps Christian cultures are particularly susceptible to end of the world beliefs and cults.

Jews stole the land. The owners want it back. That is all anyone needs to know about Israel. That is all there is to know about Israel.

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Vastet wrote:
"I am not certain to whom the bullshit can be directed as these two are the sources of record for the claims of warming. " Yeah right there's only two sources suggesting global warming. Try tens of thousands of sources. Join the 21st century. You seem to have been left in the 70's.

You have been shooting down theists long enough not to play that game. One does not get to claim thousands quoting the same three sources as being thousands of sources.

But surprise me, name a few hundred of the tens of thousands of sources which have collected more than a century of worldwide temperature data. Surprise me.

We do not let believers claim millions of believers are independent sources when they are only quoting each other.

 

Jews stole the land. The owners want it back. That is all anyone needs to know about Israel. That is all there is to know about Israel.

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digitalbeachbum wrote:

Vastet wrote:
"I am not certain to whom the bullshit can be directed as these two are the sources of record for the claims of warming. " Yeah right there's only two sources suggesting global warming. Try tens of thousands of sources. Join the 21st century. You seem to have been left in the 70's.

Dang. You did it again.

I think the bigger question about global warming is where the source of it is coming from...

So you need to answer what started 32 years ago and stopped 16 years ago. Interesting challenge that.

 

Jews stole the land. The owners want it back. That is all anyone needs to know about Israel. That is all there is to know about Israel.

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I get to claim thousands

I get to claim thousands because there are literally thousands of scientists backing global warming. Even the biggest denier has turned aside the BS and joined the rational. Too bad you've decided to be ignorant. You're going to be awfully lonely.

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Vastet wrote:
I get to claim thousands because there are literally thousands of scientists backing global warming. Even the biggest denier has turned aside the BS and joined the rational. Too bad you've decided to be ignorant. You're going to be awfully lonely.

You have thousands basing their claims upon this same data. There can be no claim without physical evidence. The temperature data is the physical evidence. Thousands of supporters of religion do not make the foundation of the religion credible.

This is the way it is. Until NASA comments this represents two of the three sources  upon which those scientists have said THE TEMPERATURE DATA supports warming. So now we have 40 years of cooling, 16 years of warming and 16 years of no change. That is the data.

As you point out many scientists have sworn by the data, this is now they data they swear by.

There is nothing without physical evidence. This is the physical evidence. There is nothing else to work with. You know that.

 

Jews stole the land. The owners want it back. That is all anyone needs to know about Israel. That is all there is to know about Israel.

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Vastet
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"You have thousands basing

"You have thousands basing their claims upon this same data."

Data that proves global warming irrefutably, which you have failed to rebut, which was collected and compiled by THOUSANDS of scientists all around the world.
Best you've done is make bs claims based on nothing more than Fox news style tactics, which have 0 substance. You're so stupidly ignorant that you posted a pic of a nuclear power plant billowing STEAM and called it smoke. You are a fucking delusional idiot.

Edited for additional content.

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“The British

“The British newspaper The Daily Mail and its writer David Rose are notorious for publishing misleading (at best) climate-related articles, as we have discussed previously here, for example,” wrote the Guardian’s Dana Nuccitelli. ”They have recently struck again, claiming that according to a ‘quietly released’ Met Office report, global warming stopped 16 years ago….  This assertion is entirely fabricated, as the Met Office explained by publishing David Rose’s inquiry and the Met Office’s responses.”

lol

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"Meanwhile, Discovery News

"Meanwhile, Discovery News has released its own article in response to the Daily Mail saying global warming is real and it cannot be ignored.
Ever since global warming was said to begin in 1997 to 1998, people around the world have denied its existence. That said, denial in global warming seemed to be a thing of the past after 2010 edged out 1998 for the hottest year on record. However, according to John Cook of the Skeptical Science blog those in denial of global warming will always be around. “I fully expect to see this ‘global warming has stopped’ myth repeated for many years to come,” he told Discovery News."

lol

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"According to Discovery

"According to Discovery News, many aspects of the Daily Mail article were out of context. For instance, the article listed the Met Office data as a brand new report they quietly put out. In reality, the Met Office had just been updating new data points to its existing climate change study."

LOL

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"In addition, one source

"In addition, one source used in the Daily Mail article says she never claimed the media misrepresented climate models despite the article saying she did. On the subject of the end of global warming, Discovery News seems to think the Daily Mail took the Met Office data out of context as well. While an obvious trend in higher temperatures can been seen, it can sometimes be masked by other weather phenomenon such as El Niño winds, according to Discovery News."

LOL

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"The Met Office released a

"The Met Office released a statement late Monday, saying the dataset did not reach any definitive conclusion regarding global warming, although it did not dispute the findings.

“Firstly, the Met Office has not issued a report on this issue. We can only assume the article is referring to the completion of work to update the HadCRUT4 global temperature dataset compiled by ourselves and the University of East Anglia’s Climate Research Unit,” the agency said in a statement. “We announced that this work was going on in March and it was finished this week. You can see the HadCRUT4 website here.”"

rofl rofl rofl rofl rofl rofl rofl rofl rofl rofl rofl rofl rofl rofl rofl rofl rofl rofl

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Having been keenly aware of

Having been keenly aware of temperature changes each winter for the last forty years I can positively say 'yes' but what is the cause of it is a completely different question.

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Vastet wrote:
"You have thousands basing their claims upon this same data." Data that proves global warming irrefutably, which you have failed to rebut, which was collected and compiled by THOUSANDS of scientists all around the world. Best you've done is make bs claims based on nothing more than Fox news style tactics, which have 0 substance. You're so stupidly ignorant that you posted a pic of a nuclear power plant billowing STEAM and called it smoke. You are a fucking delusional idiot. Edited for additional content.

Collected of course but the CRU is the official compilation. This is their report. Do you get it now?

 

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Vastet wrote:
"The Met Office released a statement late Monday, saying the dataset did not reach any definitive conclusion regarding global warming, although it did not dispute the findings. “Firstly, the Met Office has not issued a report on this issue. We can only assume the article is referring to the completion of work to update the HadCRUT4 global temperature dataset compiled by ourselves and the University of East Anglia’s Climate Research Unit,” the agency said in a statement. “We announced that this work was going on in March and it was finished this week. You can see the HadCRUT4 website here.”" rofl rofl rofl rofl rofl rofl rofl rofl rofl rofl rofl rofl rofl rofl rofl rofl rofl rofl

Where can I read the correct data for the last 16 years which MUST show an increase?

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digitalbeachbum wrote:
Having been keenly aware of temperature changes each winter for the last forty years I can positively say 'yes' but what is the cause of it is a completely different question.

Ye be not the world.

The issue is very simple. The officially released temp data is either correct or incorrect.

 

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I'm not even wasting my

I'm not even wasting my time. I just completely discredited your entire OP with 4 quotes. Any of the 4 destroy your argument singlehandedly. All 4 turn you into a complete joke.

Do you get it now?

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A_Nony_Mouse

A_Nony_Mouse wrote:

digitalbeachbum wrote:
Having been keenly aware of temperature changes each winter for the last forty years I can positively say 'yes' but what is the cause of it is a completely different question.

Ye be not the world.

The issue is very simple. The officially released temp data is either correct or incorrect.

Ye be believen what ye believes and we believe what we believe

Free will is an illusion. People always choose the perceived path of greatest pleasure.

-Scott Adams