Gun Law Repeals in Missouri, spike in violence

harleysportster's picture
Posts: 3359
Joined: 2010-10-17
User is offlineOffline
Gun Law Repeals in Missouri, spike in violence

 I am not so sure what I think of this particularly study to be honest, I only skimmed much of the article truth to be told :


Missouri gun murders 'rose after law repeal'


Researchers claim a new study provides some of the most compelling evidence yet for tighter gun controls in the US.

The team followed the consequences of the State of Missouri repealing its permit-to-purchase handgun law in 2007.

The law had required purchasers to be vetted by the local sheriff and to receive a licence before buying a gun.

Reporting soon in the Journal of Urban Health, the researchers will say that the repeal resulted in an immediate spike in gun violence and murders.

The study links the abandonment of the background check to an additional 60 or so murders occurring per year in Missouri between 2008 and 2012.

"Coincident exactly with the policy change, there was an immediate upward trajectory to the homicide rates in Missouri," said Prof Daniel Webster, director of the Johns Hopkins Center for Gun Policy and Research.

"That upward trajectory did not happen with homicides that did not involve guns; it did not occur to any neighbouring state; the national trend was doing the opposite – it was trending downward; and it was not specific to one or two localities – it was, for the most part, state-wide," he told BBC News.

The team said it took account of changes that occurred in policing levels and incarceration rates, trends in burglaries, and statistically controlled for other possible confounding factors such as shifts in unemployment and poverty.

What was stark, added Prof Webster, was the rise in the number of handguns that subsequently found their way into the hands of criminals.

The team counted a doubling of handguns shortly after sale being recovered from scenes of crimes or from criminals.

"This study is compelling confirmation that weaknesses in firearm laws lead to deaths from gun violence," said Prof Webster.

The Johns Hopkins researcher was participating in a discussion here at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS).

The theme was "science-based strategies for reducing gun violence".

America currently has more than 300 million firearms in circulation. But the issue of gun control remains a hugely contentious one.

“It is proof of a base and low mind for one to wish to think with the masses or majority, merely because the majority is the majority. Truth does not change because it is, or is not, believed by a majority of the people.”
― Giordano Bruno

Beyond Saving
Beyond Saving's picture
Posts: 5484
Joined: 2007-10-12
User is offlineOffline
 Well for starters, they

 Well for starters, they completely ignore that the spike in homocides lasted for only one year. In 2007, 385 people were murdered, then in 2008 456 were murdered. Yeah, that is a spike. But was the gun law responsible for the change? 2009, same gun laws in effect, 387 murders. Last year it was 389 murders. In the 1990's, when Missouri didn't have a concealed carry law and had a strict permitting process, the number of murders was routinely above 400 per year, and often going above 500 despite a higher population today. Do we credit the 2002 CCW law with the huge drop that resulted in the lowest murder rate Missouri has had since 1960? 

If you ask me, I think it is pretty obvious that gang activity has far more a role in murder rates than gun laws. Missouri's high murder rates in the 90's can be directly tied to gang activity related to the heroin trade. As can the lower murder rate enjoyed in the early 2000's be tied to lower levels of gang violence (and even the declaration of some PDs in Missouri that the gang problem has been defeated) More recently, Missouri has seen a resurgence of gang activity tied to meth and the Galloping Goose MC losing control of their territory.

That they try to portray their cherry picking of the numbers as "science" is pathetic. They have a one year spike, which is only a spike compared to the really low crime years they had. Even with the spike, 2008 was well below average in terms of murder rate compared to the 70's, 80's or 90's. And is only high compared to the late 90's and early 2000's- a time of economic prosperity and very low crime for the entire country. 

If, if a white man puts his arm around me voluntarily, that's brotherhood. But if you - if you hold a gun on him and make him embrace me and pretend to be friendly or brotherly toward me, then that's not brotherhood, that's hypocrisy.- Malcolm X

Vastet's picture
Posts: 13210
Joined: 2006-12-25
User is offlineOffline
There will always be a spike

There will always be a spike when something is criminalised or legalised. The true test of a laws effectiveness is consistency. If a spike is repeated two or three or more times then the law isn't effective. If things stabilise fairly quickly then the law is effective. It would seem things stabilised.

Proud Canadian, Enlightened Atheist, Gaming God.