If Austria Upheld the Holy Alliance...

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If Austria Upheld the Holy Alliance...

I'm kind of curious what the positions are on this here regarding rational foreign policy and international relations.  I'm an English School subscriber that believes foreign policy is determined by ideology, so I'm wondering what you guys believed motivated foreign policy to evolve the way it did during the 19th century.

If Austria upheld the Holy Alliance in the Crimean War:

1) Would Russia have intervened in the unification of Germany?

2) Would the Three Emperor's League have solidified?

3) Would WW1 have turned out differently with Germany, Austria, and Russia on one side, Britain, France, and the Ottomans on the other?

Bonus: What would have happened to Italy, particularly in light of the Austrian-French war before German unification?  Could and would Russia have helped out?  Would a second Crimean have been fought between Russia and Britain in the Mediterranean with Russia gaining a warm water port?


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I would suggest you take this question to This Forum as they deal with this a lot.

My Guess:

Whether or not Russia helps in the Unification of Italy/Germany depends on how the war goes.  If Austria Intervenes on Russia's Side and an actual war begins between France and Austria, you will almost assuredly see France putting considerable pressure on Sardinia-Piedmont to intervene, although if Austria puts off joining long enough then Sardinia is already involved.  In essence, if Austria and France go to war, The Italian War of Unification will be part of that war.  What is interesting is that this is before Cavour's Diplomacy, so if Italy is unified under Sardinia-Piedmont in this war you might not see Savoie-Nice passed to France.  However I don't think the war would be successful for Italy.  France and Sardinia combined were capable of beating Austria, but with Russian Soldiers pouring through Austria that isn't going to go well.

One other thing is that if Austria supports Russia on the grounds of the Holy Alliance, that will put a lot of Pressure on Prussia to join them, as they are also, at least nominally, a member of the Holy Alliance.  That right there will butterfly the German Unification as we know it.  If Austria and Russia are friends, then Prussia doesn't stand a chance.  Even in our Time Line Prussia's victory over Austria was considered a massive Upset, and with good reason.  Prussia stands even less of a chance if they don't have Italy to turn the war into a Two-Front War, and to have previously humbled the Austrian Military and Finances.

No matter what happens in the Crimean War, if Austria Intervenes then WWI as we know it doesn't happen, at all.  Either way, the borders of the Balkans will be changing, probably significantly, especially in the case of a Russo-Austrian Victory, which does become a distinct possibility.  Austria and Russia have historically had conflicting interests in the Balkans, which will always be a stumbling block.

When you say it like that you make it sound so Sinister...