Monty Hall Problem
The problem I am about to give is a problem one is usually given in a Probability class:
You go to Monty Hall for a game. The game composes three doors. One door has a million dollars behind it, the other two are empty. You get two chances, the first one and then the second one after the host has opened a different door. You pick a door, and the host opens a different door showing that it is empty. Assuming you want the million, should you switch, or should you stay with your first choice? Explain. (I hope I explained this well enough).
While it can be reasoned out without an appeal to Bayes Theorem, if you want a more rigorous defence of your choice, using Bayes Theorem will give you the correct answer.
"In the high school halls, in the shopping malls, conform or be cast out" ~ Rush, from Subdivisions