Peak Oil

SamSmith
Posts: 2
Joined: 2006-03-21
User is offlineOffline
Peak Oil

In America we are reaching a point called peak oil. If you have not heard of this, peak oil is when we have mind so much oil that no matter how much oil we try to mine the rate in which we mine it will continue to go down. It will go down until the oil we put into mining oil is equal to the amount of oil we mine. If we have not already reached peak oil then it is coming very soon and when it does our economy which is built on oil, will crash. here is an artical and a chart on peak oil. http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/ . I just wanted to make shore that everyine is aware of this huge problem. Oh and hidrogen power wont save you Eye-wink

I'm show #3 on the Rational Response Squad!


Sapient
High Level DonorRRS CO-FOUNDERRRS Core MemberWebsite Admin
Sapient's picture
Posts: 7522
Joined: 2006-04-18
User is offlineOffline
Peak Oil

Now I know our own Chaoslord2004 has some objections to the whole peak oil crisis, claiming we have 20,000 years worth of oil left... I'll let him make the arguments. There are clearly scientists on both sides of the aisle here.

Here are additional links originally posted by Forcarl on IG's board:

http://dieoff.org/

http://www.fortune.com/fortune/investing/articles/0,15114,1139979,00.html?promoid=yahoo

life after oil crash wrote:
Civilization as we know it is coming to an end soon. This is not the wacky proclamation of a doomsday cult, apocalypse bible prophecy sect, or conspiracy theory society. Rather, it is the scientific conclusion of the best paid, most widely-respected geologists, physicists, and investment bankers in the world. These are rational, professional, conservative individuals who are absolutely terrified by a phenomenon known as global "Peak Oil."

- Brian Sapient


Buy popular atheist books and support the Rational Response Squad at the same time on Amazon.


n8
Posts: 13
Joined: 2006-04-04
User is offlineOffline
Peak Oil

i have only heard a little bit of peak oil from mike ruppert sites and taped lectures and i grasp a little of it.
a scary thought

Fucking with the rich is not only necessary, it's also a hell of a lot of fun.
-Jello Biafra, Dead Kennedys

"GOD is dead"
Friedrich Nietzsche

religious wars are like argueing over who's imaginary friend is better.
richard jeni


SamSmith
Posts: 2
Joined: 2006-03-21
User is offlineOffline
Peak Oil

A realy good video about peak oil is the end of suberbia, Has anyone seen that?


Zhwazi
Zhwazi's picture
Posts: 459
Joined: 2006-10-06
User is offlineOffline
What they do now is they

What they do now is they pump a bunch of water into the well. As you know, oil and water do not mix, and oil is lighter than water. More water goes into the well, more oil is forced out of the rocks and floats to the top where it is easily accessible.

I know damn well we have no shortage of water (salt water works for this too). Unless for some reason the laws of physics reverse on us, we can keep putting water in the wells, the oil will keep floating up to where we can get to it, and we'll keep having oil.

At least that's my understanding of it.


MattShizzle
Posts: 7966
Joined: 2006-03-31
User is offlineOffline
How would the oil float up

How would the oil float up when there is no oil left? Raised Brow


Zhwazi
Zhwazi's picture
Posts: 459
Joined: 2006-10-06
User is offlineOffline
I've barely read anything

I've barely read anything about peak oil and even I know better than that.

There's plenty of oil. There's more oil under the ground than we could ever use before we find something better.

Peak oil theory says that as we have to dig deeper and deeper to get to the oil reserves, it will take more and more energy to get it out, until the amount of energy used to get the oil out of the ground and refine it is equal to the amount of energy we get from the oil. It's an asymptotal curve. As we dig deeper and deeper, more of the oil we pump up will be fueling the pump itself, and less and less will be surplus for sale, creating immense scarcity and depending on government policy either result in harsh shortages or very expensive gas, which would render all our gasoline-centric technology completely useless (except for diesels, which seem to run on anything more volatile than water).

It's not that there's no oil, it's that it would theoretically be a waste of effort to get it.

But really, all we have to do is dump water down the pipe. The oil would float to the top where we can get at it. When we want oil to be closer to the surface, we just pump a bunch of water down the chute, wait for it to sink, and start pumping up crude.


MattShizzle
Posts: 7966
Joined: 2006-03-31
User is offlineOffline
That's a better refutation

That's a better refutation of peak oil than I've heard before. The only other one I've heard was some ridiculous idea that the Earth somehow through mechanical action creates oil - that it had nothing to do with decaying plant/animal material.

Matt Shizzle has been banned from the Rational Response Squad website. This event shall provide an atmosphere more conducive to social growth. - Majority of the mod team


elnathan
Posts: 81
Joined: 2006-09-13
User is offlineOffline
My understanding of the

My understanding of the "peak oil" is a tipping point that has to do with supply verses demand--not the cost of production. We reach peak oil production when oil production can not keep up with the demand. Due to modern economics this will cause a drastic increase in the price of oil. Currently this production is based on known reserves such as the Middle East, the North Atlantic, and the American Gulf Coast.

Some "experts" predict those current reserves will last for several years. http://earthtrends.wri.org/text/energy-resources/map-505.html
While this oil may exist, it may not be able to keep up with world demand in the near future. As demand outstrips production, it may cause crude oil prices to skyrocket--much higher than it is and has been.

Others are not so optimistic, and claim this "peak oil" will occur in the very near future. There is no question that there is pllenty of oil to last for many years to come. The big problem we face is how much it will cost. Oil is the life blood of industry. Industrial nations have to have oil in order to be industrial. Industry requires much more "oil" for their production than what is used to produce gasoline. (I think gasoline is only 30-40% of current oil consumption.)

The explosion of "suberbia" that spread across the U.S. in the mid 20th century was directly related to the availability of "cheap gas." Daily commutes to work via automobile are dependant upon this cheap fuel. The transportation industry (18 wheelers and trains) depends on the availability cheap fuel. Without cheap fuel, transporation costs increase drastically, the spending dollar of the commuters deminishes.

When we reach peak production and the balance tips, it will have a significant impact on nearly every major economy (read; the big three) in the world. There will still be plenty of oil, but it will be too expensive for those countries to maintain their current level of consumption. When the economic value of industry is threatened by this imbalance, there will be a great deal more importance placed on securing the oil that is still available.

When our current way of life becomes threatened because of the lack of oi, it may be neccessary to set aside our environmental concerns and drill in areas such as the pristene Alaskan refuge. While GWB may currently be viewed with distrust and distain, history may write him as the "oil president." If we are very near that "peak oil" tipping point, he may come off a lot better in the long run, than the dumb ass he appears to be today!

For a better explanation of the impact of the Peak Oil, James Howard Kunster wrote a book "The Long Emergency" that goes into it in a lot more detail. You can read an excert from it here...
http://www.rollingstone.com/news/story/7203633/the_long_emergency

In intellectual matters you can think things out, but in spiritual matters you will only think yourself into further wandering thoughts and more confusion. --Oswald Chambers


Zhwazi
Zhwazi's picture
Posts: 459
Joined: 2006-10-06
User is offlineOffline
elnathan wrote:My

elnathan wrote:
My understanding of the "peak oil" is a tipping point that has to do with supply verses demand--not the cost of production. We reach peak oil production when oil production can not keep up with the demand. Due to modern economics this will cause a drastic increase in the price of oil.

Actually it's not due to economics, it's something that is predicted by economic theory. What you said is like saying "Because of science, when I drop this object it will fall".

And it's not just a matter of increasing demand, it's also decreasing supply. That causes the price to increase extremely sharply.


elnathan
Posts: 81
Joined: 2006-09-13
User is offlineOffline
Okay...whatever. Sorry I

Okay...whatever. Sorry I questioned your authority....geeze.

Quote:

And it's not just a matter of increasing demand, it's also decreasing supply. That causes the price to increase extremely sharply.

Supply is higher than any point in history, and production is still increasing. There is no reduction in supply at this point. But the demand is higher than supply--simple economics.

True, the supply will/may go down when this tipping point is reached, but we can already see it loosing its balance.

In intellectual matters you can think things out, but in spiritual matters you will only think yourself into further wandering thoughts and more confusion. --Oswald Chambers


Zhwazi
Zhwazi's picture
Posts: 459
Joined: 2006-10-06
User is offlineOffline
An increase in demand

An increase in demand usually motivates an increase in supply. When more people demand shoes, the shoe price doesn't go up (in the long term), they just make more and more shoes. When people demand oil, the oil price doesn't go up (in the long term), they just produce more and more oil.

When you have a problem is when it's impossible to increase production. At that point the price begins to increase.

High oil prices today are a result of the War in Iraq and the possibility with war in Iran, making the oil supply unstable, and that uncertaintly drives up the price of oil.


Iruka Naminori
atheist
Iruka Naminori's picture
Posts: 1955
Joined: 2006-11-21
User is offlineOffline
Zhwazi wrote: It's not

Zhwazi wrote:
It's not that there's no oil, it's that it would theoretically be a waste of effort to get it. But really, all we have to do is dump water down the pipe. The oil would float to the top where we can get at it. When we want oil to be closer to the surface, we just pump a bunch of water down the chute, wait for it to sink, and start pumping up crude.

 I know nothing about the oil business.  Is this method of obtaining crude already being used? 

Books on atheism, purchases on Amazon support the Rational Response Squad server.


Vastet
atheistBloggerHigh Level ModeratorSuperfan
Vastet's picture
Posts: 10143
Joined: 2006-12-25
User is offlineOffline
Fortunately I live in a

Fortunately I live in a country that has if not the largest, one of the largest oil reserves in the world. Second biggest country in the world with one of the lowest per-capita rates when comparing land area to population. And we're already on the fast track to not using oil for anything we don't need to. I don't see peak oil being a big problem for Canada unless someone is stupid enough to try and invade us over it, or we somehow stop looking into new technologies and power sources all of a sudden.

Proud Canadian, Enlightened Atheist, Gaming God.


Zhwazi
Zhwazi's picture
Posts: 459
Joined: 2006-10-06
User is offlineOffline
Yes, this is the method

Yes, this is the method already being used. My father works for a company that manufactures drill heads which inject water in order to bring out the oil. So I can say that since we are manufacturing parts to allow us to do it, and have been for a while, chances are we are doing it and have been doing it.


lao tzu
Posts: 41
Joined: 2007-01-12
User is offlineOffline
Depletion Levels in Ghawar

Depletion Levels in Ghawar (Updated)

Yes, I know this thread is a mummy, but I've been following this topic with Glenn Morton (of Morton's Demon) for quite some time.  Anyone truly interested in what peak oil means should take the time to comb through the above article.  The author has gone to a great deal of trouble to make many of the technical details accessible to non-specialists.

 As ever, Jesse

There is no lao tzu


lpetrich
lpetrich's picture
Posts: 148
Joined: 2007-05-14
User is offlineOffline
I do think that Peak Oil is

I do think that Peak Oil is a legitimate concern. It does not mean that the oil will run out soon; it means that we've pumped out about half of the readily-available oil. There's still plenty left, but the demand will create a BIG crunch on what remains. So gasoline prices will go up, up, up, up, up...

 And yes, this includes pumping water into wells to get the oil out.


Zombie
RRS local affiliate
Zombie's picture
Posts: 573
Joined: 2007-01-28
User is offlineOffline
Peak Oil

I think peak oil is something of a myth, since its based on $30 barrel price. WHich doesn`t take into account the two major oil sands in alberta and venuzuala

Morte alla tyrannus et dei


ArianeB
ArianeB's picture
Posts: 23
Joined: 2007-09-24
User is offlineOffline
What Peak Oil REALLY is

Ack! so much misinformation about "Peak Oil" I cant stand it.

Here in a nutshell is what it really is: At first oil is easy to pump out, and as more wells are dug production goes up. Eventually the oil stops gushing and has to be pumped. There are tricks like the above mentioned water trick, to keep a well going, but that costs money. As the well gets drier, the cost of pumping makes the well less profitable.

The production out of a single well follows a bell curve. It goes exponentially up, till it reaches a peak, then it declines exponentially until it is shut down. The production out of a field also follows a bell curve. Thus, production out of a country also follows a bell curve, the US peak was 1971 -- domestic oil production has declined every year since then.

The awful conclusion is that a global production peak will be reached. From that point forward, there will be less and less oil produced world wide, despite an ever growing demand for it.

There is lots of interested parties who want us to think that peak oil is years away from actually happening. Oil companies of course, oil rich countries like Saudi Arabia, political right wingers etc.

But here is the really REALLY ugly truth: Worldwide oil production peaked in July of 2006 at 82.09 million barrels per day. Every month since then has produced less than that figure. Despite promises from OPEC to increase production, August 2007 production stood at 80.72 million barrels per day.

There may be extenuating circumstances for the stand still of production, such as the war in Iraq, weather, or just plain greed as Oil pushes up to the 90 mark, so it is possible that oil production may rise in the future. But for now it has flatlined, and demand is not getting lower.

A detailed analysis (the best I have seen) can be found here: http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2693#more 


lao tzu
Posts: 41
Joined: 2007-01-12
User is offlineOffline
ArianeB wrote:

ArianeB wrote:


Ack! so much misinformation about "Peak Oil" I cant stand it.


Greetings, ArianeB,

Join the club. Then again, there's almost no action on this thread if you follow the post dates. When the respondents thin out, so does the useful information. I'm pleased to see a voice of reason enter this discussion.

Quote:
There is lots of interested parties who want us to think that peak oil is years away from actually happening. Oil companies of course, oil rich countries like Saudi Arabia, political right wingers etc.


The official DOE curves were still projecting 2020 the last time I checked. But they're visibly skewed away from the Hubbert bell curve.

Quote:
But here is the really REALLY ugly truth: Worldwide oil production peaked in July of 2006 at 82.09 million barrels per day. Every month since then has produced less than that figure. Despite promises from OPEC to increase production, August 2007 production stood at 80.72 million barrels per day.


My introduction to this topic was from Glenn Morton, former YEC ghostwriter and oil industry surveyor. On August 6, 2006, he began a thread on TWeb, Peak oil has arrived. I've spent a good deal of time since broadening my knowledge base on the topic.

Quote:
There may be extenuating circumstances for the stand still of production, such as the war in Iraq, weather, or just plain greed as Oil pushes up to the 90 mark, so it is possible that oil production may rise in the future. But for now it has flatlined, and demand is not getting lower.

A detailed analysis (the best I have seen) can be found here: http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2693#more


The Oil Drum is an excellent source on peak oil. For a wider energy perspective, I recommend the triennial reports of the World Energy Council. The current Survey of Energy Resources 2007 is a must read for anyone interested in speaking knowledgeably about global energy issues.

As ever, Jesse

There is no lao tzu


lpetrich
lpetrich's picture
Posts: 148
Joined: 2007-05-14
User is offlineOffline
Actually, it is cars and

Actually, it is cars and airplanes that would be the toughest to fuel in a post-petroleum energy economy; it's hard to make any good substitutes that do not require a LOT of energy input.

One can easily supply electricity to trains, by stringing cables overhead or placing extra rails on the side. That has been done for over a century, and is most practical for shorter and heavier-traffic lines, like urban and regional lines. However, it is less practical for longer lines and lower-traffic lines; that is why diesel locomotives are common there.

Of flat-road vehicles, buses are sometimes powered by electricity delivered by overhead cable; there are some cities that have them, and they may become more common as fossil-fuel prices increase. That is feasible for buses, since they usually go on regular routes; but that is not nearly as feasible for trucks or cars, with their much less regular routes.

Also, the energy-returned/energy-input ratio, while comfortably high for existing oil fields, go down a long way for tar sands, oil shales, and coal-based synfuels -- which means yet more expense. So having lots of tar sands, oil shales, and coal won't help that much.


jollybriston (not verified)
Posts: 4294964979
Joined: 1969-12-31
User is offlineOffline
All we have to do is pour

All we have to do is pour water through the tube. The oil floating on the top where you can reach it. When we want oil to be closer to the surface, just pump a lot of water through the channel, wait for it to sink, and start pumping oil.

 


BobSpence
High Level DonorRational VIP!ScientistWebsite Admin
BobSpence's picture
Posts: 5800
Joined: 2006-02-14
User is offlineOffline
jollybriston wrote:All we

jollybriston wrote:

All we have to do is pour water through the tube. The oil floating on the top where you can reach it. When we want oil to be closer to the surface, just pump a lot of water through the channel, wait for it to sink, and start pumping oil.

 

It doesn't actually work like that. Underground oil is mostly in small pores in sponge-like rock formations, not in great open cave-like hollow cavities. It doesn't flow easily. Once enough has been extracted to relieve the pressure, it is very hard to get what's left out.

If it was a simple as you say, it would have been done.

Favorite oxymorons: Gospel Truth, Rational Supernaturalist, Business Ethics, Christian Morality

"Theology is now little more than a branch of human ignorance. Indeed, it is ignorance with wings." - Sam Harris

The path to Truth lies via careful study of reality, not the dreams of our fallible minds - me

From the sublime to the ridiculous: Science -> Philosophy -> Theology