Is the lottery worth it?

digitalbeachbum
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Is the lottery worth it?

Most of us at one time or another has played lotto. However buying one ticket in Powerball is so worthless that it is like trying to melt an iceberg by pissing on it. The odds are 1 in 292 million that your one ticket will win.

The LA times has a simulator on their website to show how difficult it is to win. If you want you can spend a million bucks to purchase tickets. I ran the simulator and after a million spent I got back 98 thousand in winnings.

http://graphics.latimes.com/powerball-simulator/

Last night at a party some one said to me, "if I were a millionare I go out and purchase every ticket". I laughed. I explained that with 292 million combinations you would need 146,000 people to purchase 2000 tickets at the same time to get 292 million tickets. The logisitics would be a nightmare, plus you'd have to pay them and trust them. I explained if I were wealthy the quickest way to lose my fortune was to think I could purchase enough tickets to guarantee a win.

Last night no one got the correct picks and after selling almost 2 million an hour since the 500 million drawing. So the new jackpot is going to swell to 1.3 billion. HOLY FUCK! 1.3 billion, which will certainly swell to 1.5 billion. Close to 1/4 of what Lucas sold Star Wars for to Disney. The cash payout after taxes will exceed 1 billion dollars. No shit. A single winning lotto ticket would be worth 1 billion. So is it worth it to spend two dollars for a ticket with a chance at a billion? Also what would you do with it if you had a billion dollars?

 


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 If you look at it solely

 If you look at it solely as an investment, then clearly it isn't worth it. However, I don't think the value of the lottery for most people is the money. They enjoy dreaming about what it would be like to win an amount of money they don't believe they could ever make otherwise. From that aspect, $2 is fairly cheap entertainment, and if you happen to win, that is a damn nice cherry. So yeah, if it gives you pleasure, it is no more a waste of money than getting an iTunes song, buying a beer or paying for Netflix.

If, if a white man puts his arm around me voluntarily, that's brotherhood. But if you - if you hold a gun on him and make him embrace me and pretend to be friendly or brotherly toward me, then that's not brotherhood, that's hypocrisy.- Malcolm X


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 As far as a rich person

 As far as a rich person buying every ticket, it isn't feasible. Even if you got around the logistics somehow, you have 292 million tickets you have to buy. That is $484 million. After you win, take the lump sum and pay taxes, you might be slightly ahead with a billion dollar pot (assuming nobody else hits, one hit and you have a 9 figure loss) However, liquidating that much cash would be a taxable event, you have a significant loss from $484 million being tied up and not earning anything until you finally get your payment. Additionally, when you cash out $484 million, you aren't getting peak value. When a major investor starts pulling out, a stock tanks. So either you sell slowly over time meaning your money is in less profitable investments longer, or you take a large loss.

Either way, you aren't going to profit on the lottery due to the opportunity cost. As a billionaire, you are better off throwing money at new start ups, hoping to be the first investor in the next Google, Facebook or Uber, where you will make far more than a billion.

If, if a white man puts his arm around me voluntarily, that's brotherhood. But if you - if you hold a gun on him and make him embrace me and pretend to be friendly or brotherly toward me, then that's not brotherhood, that's hypocrisy.- Malcolm X


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Playing the lootery

is predicated on, "someone will win". If it were a horse race the odds would be based on ---(quoting Albert Stroller of BBC Hustle) the horse is blind, without a jockey and missing one leg. But what's a sure thing--someone will win and it may as well be me, right. I play the Wiconsin Mega Bucks lottery each week. It's cheap at a buck a time so it doesn't run me broke. I can spare 8 bucks a month --I piss that up aganst the bulkhead just making stupid mistakes at the super Mkt each month anyway. Mega bucks has odds 6,991,908 to 1. Thats better odds then powerbasll. I'd rather win less with a better chance to win. I disagree with how the lotteries are run. IMO they should give out less and keep more for the states tax account. I think they should have  a 10 million dollar limit as 1st prize, 5 million 2nd, 2 million 500 thou, and a booby prize at 500 thou. This way more floks could win and the lottery benefits more people. With better chnces to win more floks would play. 1st prize at hundreds of millions is rediculus.

Wis Mega Bucks would be better off is at 1st prize at 500,000 and a 2nd at 200,00 and a 3rd at 50,000. At least someone is winning something. Anyone would be greatly gratified to win even 10,000 with a better chance to win something. I say the odds are to great and pay out to much to make sense.

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I'd be much more inclined to

I'd be much more inclined to create a lottery than attempt to buy all the tickets in someone elses lottery.

A billion is too much. I wouldn't know what to do with it. I probably wouldn't spend a quarter of it before I died of old age in 70 years.

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my wife's always wanted to


my wife's always wanted to refurnish the house, so i'd tell her to go nuts. probably get a little beach house in naples, florida. i'd also get some place up in northern slovakia, up in the mountains, for ski trips. i guess i'd eventually live out my dream of getting a log cabin up in the rockies as well. we'd get a new car, nothing crazy, maybe a nice mercedes. after that, i'd just continue my current lifestyle, minus the worry about money. we'd eat out more, i'm sure. i'd still drink in the shittiest, cheapest bars i could find, just because i like them. i might dress a bit nicer, get myself a few tailored suits, buy only high-quality clothes because i appreciate them. we'd travel more, though nothing ostentatious. i think my only major indulgence would be buying a new musical instrument whenever i wanted it. maybe making my own little recording studio up in the attic. oh, and i would definitely fly first class, always, because i fucking hate flying.

all in all, really posh places make me uncomfortable. i genuinely wouldn't enjoy lavish hotels or five-star restaurants. i would maybe shell out the money to take courses at le cordon bleu or something, as much as i love cooking.

as for the rest of that inconceivable amount of money, i would squirrel it away for my descendents, and just hope they don't become total pieces of shit. i'd also buy a shit-ton of needed stuff for the school i teach at, but i would be heavily involved in that, i wouldn't just donate them money because i wouldn't trust the administration with a loan of twenty dollars. i would also do everything in my power to seriously alter the political landscape of slovakia.

"I have never felt comfortable around people who talk about their feelings for Jesus, or any other deity for that matter, because they are usually none too bright. . . . Or maybe 'stupid' is a better way of saying it; but I have never seen much point in getting heavy with either stupid people or Jesus freaks, just as long as they don't bother me. In a world as weird and cruel as this one we have made for ourselves, I figure anybody who can find peace and personal happiness without ripping off somebody else deserves to be left alone. They will not inherit the earth, but then neither will I. . . . And I have learned to live, as it were, with the idea that I will never find peace and happiness, either. But as long as I know there's a pretty good chance I can get my hands on either one of them every once in a while, I do the best I can between high spots."
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After I signed off

Vastet wrote:
I'd be much more inclined to create a lottery than attempt to buy all the tickets in someone elses lottery. A billion is too much. I wouldn't know what to do with it. I probably wouldn't spend a quarter of it before I died of old age in 70 years.

earlir the thought miraculouslyly appeared--yeh right. I got to thinking--how many billionaires are buying tickets bigtime. It seems them guys can't get enough bucks to make them happy. IE-T. Boone Pickens down ther in Texas. He say's he's interested in investing in wind energy (this wsa about 3 years ago)  he's got 15 to 20 billion as is. He should be smart enough by now to see that wind energy is a big investment looser, or is going to be when Gov subsidies are cut off sometime this year. Having 15 billion ain't enough.

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I asked a friend of mine who

I asked a friend of mine who is extremely rich, I estimate around 20-25 million. He lives in a 3/2 modest home, drives a Toyota and doesn't play the lotto. He told me he has a slew of investments he lives off and spends none of his inheritance. I agree, except I play the lotto once a month. I get $6 spread over 5 lotteries.

I find that the smaller pots are better. You pick 4 or 5 numbers is a heck of a lot more manageable. Fantasy 5 can pay out over a million but is usually $250k. Other smaller versions pay out 50k. I also like scratch offs and play 3-4 times a month but I always look at the websites to see which ones have the most jackpot prizes left. No reason to purchase ones which are 0/5 top prizes.

As for spending it I'd get a new car, I really need one, stow away some investments for the family, specifically schooling/college. I take care of some family and friends, just to shut them up. Then I'd go in to hiding. I wouldn't even claim the prize in my name. I'd setup up a LLC or something and have a lawyer pick up the check. If memory serves me Florida doesn't require that I announce my name so I'd do every thing to stay hidden.

I have a neighbor who won $500 million in 2004. He cashed out at around $300 million and instantly had to pay his ex and kids X amount per the court. Then he put up a big wall around his house, camera, guard dogs, 24/7 guards. No joke. He totally disappeared. He even changed how he looks, a little, then let every thing die down.

Every thing else would be buying land, property, rental properties. I'd get a staff of regular vendors for cleaning and repairs then do vacation rentals. Down here you can setup vacation rentals around Disney and make $2000 a week for a small house. Turn over is covered by deposits so if they trash it you fall back on the deposit or insurance coverage. Cleaning crews are easy. Mexicans. As long as they have their papers saying they are legal I don't have to check further than that and as long as they clean good they get paid well. Lower overhead for me.

I think Lotto as a whole is BS. The State of Florida lied to the voters and told us that the money made would be used for schools but they never said "how much". Schools here get around 10% and then rest goes to pet projects and other crap.


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 It is not a waste of money

 It is not a waste of money if you don't go overboard. It is a waste of money if you become obsessed to the point of ignoring the other financial parts of your life. Just like casino gabling and or sports betting. 

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"Now what?"

Old Seer wrote:

Vastet wrote:
I'd be much more inclined to create a lottery than attempt to buy all the tickets in someone elses lottery. A billion is too much. I wouldn't know what to do with it. I probably wouldn't spend a quarter of it before I died of old age in 70 years.

earlir the thought miraculouslyly appeared--yeh right. I got to thinking--how many billionaires are buying tickets bigtime. It seems them guys can't get enough bucks to make them happy. IE-T. Boone Pickens down ther in Texas. He say's he's interested in investing in wind energy (this wsa about 3 years ago)  he's got 15 to 20 billion as is. He should be smart enough by now to see that wind energy is a big investment looser, or is going to be when Gov subsidies are cut off sometime this year. Having 15 billion ain't enough.

 

 

            Old Seer have you ever heard of the "now what scenario" ?  T.Boone and compulsive gamblers {i.e. 80 + year old women} are examples of it.  Take a dedicated slots player {80+ year old women} with a bucket of slot tokens, sit them at a slot machine and watch what happens when they win at the first pull. Ta Da!!!!!!!! Jack pot!!! Buuuuuuut the game is OVER!!! NOW WHAT!!!!

 

            T.Boone and the slot gamblers {any gambler/entrepanure} are not interested in the jackpot,   they're adreniline junkies, the persuit of possible maybes is what drives them not the "jackpot".  Winning takes away the "fun".

 

   

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Winning is everything to me.

Winning is everything to me. lol. Guess that's why I don't do lotto much.

I've bought some scratch tickets occasionally in the past, mostly for something to do while I waited for whatever I was waiting for. Found one that I always broke even on or made a couple bucks if I bought a certain number of tickets.

But it's been years since I had cash to throw away recklessly like that.

I kinda wish I'd always had my current budget mentality. I'd have a much bigger bank account. Too bad real world experience doesn't count for anything. I could probably make a killing teaching people how to spend intelligently.

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digitalbeachbum
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Brian37 wrote:  It is not a

Brian37 wrote:

 It is not a waste of money if you don't go overboard. It is a waste of money if you become obsessed to the point of ignoring the other financial parts of your life. Just like casino gabling and or sports betting. 

I disagree. It is only wasted money if you get nothing in return and that includes the entertainment factor.


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With guys lie T. Boone

Jeffrick wrote:

Old Seer wrote:

Vastet wrote:
I'd be much more inclined to create a lottery than attempt to buy all the tickets in someone elses lottery. A billion is too much. I wouldn't know what to do with it. I probably wouldn't spend a quarter of it before I died of old age in 70 years.

earlir the thought miraculouslyly appeared--yeh right. I got to thinking--how many billionaires are buying tickets bigtime. It seems them guys can't get enough bucks to make them happy. IE-T. Boone Pickens down ther in Texas. He say's he's interested in investing in wind energy (this wsa about 3 years ago)  he's got 15 to 20 billion as is. He should be smart enough by now to see that wind energy is a big investment looser, or is going to be when Gov subsidies are cut off sometime this year. Having 15 billion ain't enough.

 

 

            Old Seer have you ever heard of the "now what scenario" ?  T.Boone and compulsive gamblers {i.e. 80 + year old women} are examples of it.  Take a dedicated slots player {80+ year old women} with a bucket of slot tokens, sit them at a slot machine and watch what happens when they win at the first pull. Ta Da!!!!!!!! Jack pot!!! Buuuuuuut the game is OVER!!! NOW WHAT!!!!

 

            T.Boone and the slot gamblers {any gambler/entrepanure} are not interested in the jackpot,   they're adreniline junkies, the persuit of possible maybes is what drives them not the "jackpot".  Winning takes away the "fun".

I agree, it's not the money. I'd say they're even past the greed binging, if they were that way to begin with. You'd think and Old Seer wouldn't be to much interested in money or the lootery. Well, I don't want it for me. I have grand kids that need a start. This is a tourist area here and there's not much other. So to get them going - and set them up on something is the prime interest. They need a hell of alot more money today then when I was their age. I think the slots are mostky rigged anyway.

 

someone metioned Cordon Bleu previous in this thread. I had a grand daughter enrolled in the one near Minneaplois last fall but couldn't find an apartment in time. She's still eligible for her dads' VA bennies to pay the way. That's the kind of thing I would love to win a billion for----Yeah sure. Nah, a couple of hundred thousand would do, there's other grand kids that need a get go.

 

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re: the entertainment factor


re: the entertainment factor in gambling, everyone should read junichi saga's confessions of a yakuza. the old man in the story was a traditional yakuza from the early 20th century. unlike what hollywood shows, the yakuza at least used to be a principled, decent sort of people. anyway, the book goes on at length about the psychology of traditional japanese gambling houses, and how people would lose a ton of money and still leave smiling, thanking the host for a lovely evening. very interesting read.

"I have never felt comfortable around people who talk about their feelings for Jesus, or any other deity for that matter, because they are usually none too bright. . . . Or maybe 'stupid' is a better way of saying it; but I have never seen much point in getting heavy with either stupid people or Jesus freaks, just as long as they don't bother me. In a world as weird and cruel as this one we have made for ourselves, I figure anybody who can find peace and personal happiness without ripping off somebody else deserves to be left alone. They will not inherit the earth, but then neither will I. . . . And I have learned to live, as it were, with the idea that I will never find peace and happiness, either. But as long as I know there's a pretty good chance I can get my hands on either one of them every once in a while, I do the best I can between high spots."
--Hunter S. Thompson


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iwbiek wrote: re: the

iwbiek wrote:

re: the entertainment factor in gambling, everyone should read junichi saga's confessions of a yakuza. the old man in the story was a traditional yakuza from the early 20th century. unlike what hollywood shows, the yakuza at least used to be a principled, decent sort of people. anyway, the book goes on at length about the psychology of traditional japanese gambling houses, and how people would lose a ton of money and still leave smiling, thanking the host for a lovely evening. very interesting read.

They leave happy because they don't mind losing. It's the experience they have gambling that they pay for and is the service. If they win, it's like icing on the cake.


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I you believe in the

I you believe in the Many-Worlds interpretation of quatum mechanics as I do. You always win the lottery, many versions of you do. But probably not the one you will experience.

Even at 1.5B, your expected return is still less 1.0 to say it is a good bed. But I think the chances are there will be multiple winners, the taxes are so high.

The odd of winning are 292.92 million to one. If there were no taxes and no other possible winner, the expected return would be 2.56. But I assume taxes are at least half the payout, an at least 50% change you need to share with another winner with this many players. So I think Expected return is around .64 maybe less. Still a suckers bet, worse than any casino bet expected payout.

 

Taxation is the price we pay for failing to build a civilized society. The higher the tax level, the greater the failure. A centrally planned totalitarian state represents a complete defeat for the civilized world, while a totally voluntary society represents its ultimate success. --Mark Skousen


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Funny how a Canadian would

Funny how a Canadian would take home more than the average American in an American lottery. Yay Canada for not taxing the lottery.

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I had a dream last night

I had a dream last night that I won. I set aside X amount for family and friends then setup a website asking for people to enter their names in a random drawing.

I setup the website to run for a short period of time then took random addresses, verified residency, then added their name to the list of people to accept the lottery.

At the end of the dream I had 900 people getting a million bucks.

I felt better because there was no more stress of people trying to steal from me. I had diverted the attention of me winning a billion dollars and spread it out over 900 other people.

Don't ask for more specifics but my dream was vague on those.