Astrology Woo

nebula
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cj
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It's called - "cold

It's called - "cold reading".

Unless, he knew her name and he researched ahead of time, in which case, it is a "warm reading".

Look up what James Randi has to say about it.  Randi even gives instructions on how to practice and get good at it.

 

-- I feel so much better since I stopped trying to believe.

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Jeffrick
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I'm still skeptical.

This is my 2000th post, so I want to do a good job here.

Armstrong by his own admission has been studying and practicing this suedoscience for over 30 years; any intelligent person can learn a lot about human nature in that time, his own experience , not the stars, can fill in a lot of information.

What does he have to work with? Birth date, sex and location of birth. This can tell you a lot, more importantly it can tell Armstrong a lot. Add to that the location where these volunteers had gathered.

--- Where they born in a different place and now live near by? ---

--- Where they local born? ---

--- Which state or which country were they born in?---

In the video I saw older people; 40's & 50's ; Not young adults not seniors; What could you deduce from that age group plus knowing where they came from? NOTE; they were all roughly Mike Shermer's age contmporarys. Have no doubt that Armstrong made note of that.

--- What kind of people would Shermer recruit? Friends, co-workers; at the very least intelligent people leaning towards skepticisim. ---

--- Perhaps they were strangers but Mike Shermer would have vetted all applicants, subconsciencously we all opt for people similar to ourselves. Armstrong knows this better then any of us. ---

What day of the week was the test conducted? Very important. What could you deduce from that age group if...?

--- A week day during buisness hours, why are people this age available for a non-paying lab test? ---

--- Are they employees of Shermers' office, therefore the first question becomes invalide. ---

--- Was it a Saturday, when busy people might have the time. Young adults might have family commitments, this age group likely has freer time. ---

---Was it a Sunday, religious people would be unlikely; agnostic-types and skeptics would find the time. ---

--- What time of day? It answers a simple question; what kind of people are available at that time? ---

Another factor, that is being studied by real scientist [ sociologists & anthropologists among others] is in fact BIRTH DATE. Malcolm Gladwell wrote on the phenominal fact that 95% of Canadian Born NHL players were born in January & Februrary of any given year. Non Canadian born players also dominate in Jan & Feb just not has much. The answer is surprisingly simple. One starts minor hockey at age 6, if your sixth birthday is before Dec.31 of the year you join.

--- if for example you are born Dec.30 you will be playing against kids born Jan. 1 of the same year; ---

--- The kids born in Jan. & Feb. are nearly a year older then their "peer group". For kids so young an extra 10 to 12 months of growth and maturity is ONE BIG DEAL. ---

--- The best players make all the all star teams and exhibition games, in short the best players get more "ice time", more practice, and more coaching to be better players. ---

--- the bigger stronger faster smarter players are the best, [no big surprise] the kids born in Jan. & Feb. are bigger, stronger faster then their peers. ---

--- Socially speaking this "Gladwell rule' apply's everywhere. Did you enter kindergarten at age 5 or was it more like age 4 yrs. 7 mo. with classmates who are more like 5 yrs. 6 mo. and guess which child excells. And will continue to excell throughout their school years. ---

--- Some parents are even holding their kids out of school for a year just to give them that advantage , thanks to Malcolm Gladwell. ---

An expert like Armstrong could in fact look at a birthdate, [remember his 30+yrs experience] and make a pretty good judgment on their maturity levels in school and later their social success as an adult.

All of these questions and deductions apparently gave Armstrong a 60 to 70% accuracy rating. Remember the two women who scored in the 90% range HAD ALREADY heard their evaluations, thinking it was the other persons.

Fixed it.  - butter  

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VEGETARIAN: Ancient Hindu word for "lousy hunter"

If man was formed from dirt, why is there still dirt?


Jeffrick
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HELP

 

 

                        

 

                                   Can I get a moderator to clean up the mess in #2 post. I swear my work page had all the right paragraphs in all the right places.

 

"Very funny Scotty; now beam down our clothes."

VEGETARIAN: Ancient Hindu word for "lousy hunter"

If man was formed from dirt, why is there still dirt?


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Well, if you shoot enough

Well, if you shoot enough videos of enough of these stupid tests, every once and awhile the astrologer is going to get lucky and have a good day and be 77% right at making extremely broad statements. I can find hundreds of videos of these astrologers being made to look like the fools they are. Chances are that if you take all of those statements and make them about yourself somewhere around 60-70% of them will apply to you. 

 

1. Over 40 you put on a little more weight

2. A difficult father relationship OR separation from father OR he wasn't around as much

3. Ever study or like martial arts OR dancing

4. A bit of a clown/comedian

5. Have "at times" strong speech

6. Been a lot of places OR done a lot of things

7. Wealthy OR have attracted wealth

8. Good looking

9. Good dresser

10. Charismatic and attractive

11. Has some detail ability

12. Tends to put other people forward

13. A great supporting person

14. Bushy eyebrows

15. High aesthetic values

16. Has had car problems

17. Will have good children

18. Has a positive relationship with children

19. Is currently facing obstacles

20. Had a good relationship with parents

21. Have more than one marriage 

22. Ever do something first and think about the consequences later

 

Take the test yourself. How many of these statements apply to you?

For me

1- still under 40 but I'm sure it will be true, I already have been noticing that the beer belly is a bit harder to get rid of than it used to.

2-True, my father is a jerk because he is too much like me. 

3-True

4-True

5-True

6-True, kind of, note this is very subjective. I have traveled quite a bit, but many people travel significantly more than me. I have only been to two continents and five countries. I know people who have traveled five or six continents and dozens of countries, so compared to them I am a country bumpkin. So have I traveled "a lot"? 

7-True, again subjective, I'm not a millionaire but I consider myself well off. Note that the astrologer knew the age of the person and knew he was male. Senior males are the wealthiest segment of our population.

8-True, again subjective, most people do believe they are good looking. I'm not going to be winning any beauty contests, but I look better than the old guy in the video.

9-False, I am a terrible dresser, I don't even bother buying my own clothes because I am so incompetent at it according to every woman I have ever dated.

10- True, (I have a big ego Sticking out tongue)

11- True

12- False, I'm a selfish SOB, most people are but virtually no one admits it so 99% of people would probably agree with this statement, even if it wasn't true.

13- True, I might be selfish but I support everyone I care about as best I can.

14- False

15- False, not really into art.

16- True, who hasn't had car problems?

17- False, will never have kids

18- False

19- True

20- True, again pretty subjective. Compare to statement 2. I feel that both are true. I have had a lot of conflict with my father, but I still love both of my parents and feel that the relationship is more or less "good".

21- False, one marriage I am currently divorced so the possibility of another marriage in the future exists. Note the statement was broad enough that "well you aren't in a second marriage now but you probably will be" has some potential. 

22- True, who doesn't sometimes?

 

So for me he got 15/22 which is around 68% and that is taking all of the statements and not adjusting for gender and age. It is called the Forer effect. When you make generalized statements, people will subjectively apply them to themselves and are inclined to agree with them. When you have knowledge of age and gender it makes it easier to make more specific statements that will apply to that person, especially when you are talking about kids/marriages.  

 

If, if a white man puts his arm around me voluntarily, that's brotherhood. But if you - if you hold a gun on him and make him embrace me and pretend to be friendly or brotherly toward me, then that's not brotherhood, that's hypocrisy.- Malcolm X


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nebula wrote:Can anyone give

nebula wrote:

Can anyone give a rational explanation for this?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C6k7xa1NrCc

Yep. Cold reader. I worked for a guy who created webpages for a few of them back in the 90's. He did some cold readings on us and it was impressive but nothing more amazing that a poker player reading some one to make a bet on a hand of cards.

Free will is an illusion. People always choose the perceived path of greatest pleasure.

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Oh. There was that one guy

Oh. There was that one guy with the show, "crossing over", my aunt did a cold reading with him and he was very good, but she did another one later at another show and he was so terrible she doubted him. She came to me and asked about it, after I explained it to her, she threw out his books.

 

Free will is an illusion. People always choose the perceived path of greatest pleasure.

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~~~~

That astrologer looks like Kent Hovind. 


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PT Barnum, "There is a

PT Barnum, "There is a sucker born every minute".

"We are a nation of Christians and Muslims, Jews and Hindus -- and nonbelievers."Obama
Check out my poetry here on Rational Responders Like my poetry thread on Facebook under BrianJames Rational Poet also on twitter under Brianrrs37


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~~~~

digitalbeachbum wrote:

Oh. There was that one guy with the show, "crossing over", my aunt did a cold reading with him and he was very good, but she did another one later at another show and he was so terrible she doubted him. She came to me and asked about it, after I explained it to her, she threw out his books. 

You're talking about John Edward, who South Park dubbed "The Biggest Douche in the Universe" (watch the episode here, it's funny!).  Michael Shermer was on 20/20 a while back debunking him.  Here's the nine minute video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AeGB8-5EZQA


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This is the kind of thing

This is the kind of thing that's harder to describe than show. So for a complete exposé on this practice and how it works, watch season 6 episode 15 of South Park, entitled "The Biggest Douche in the Universe".

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1 Not there, and not likely.

1 Not there, and not likely. My weight has fluctuated between 170 and 220 for the last 15 years.

2 No

3 Yes

4 No

5 Yes

6 Depends on relativity factor. Relative to a typical small town person I have. Relative to an ambassador I haven't.

7 No

8/9/10/11 Yes

12 Depends

13 If I like you

14 No

15 Huh?

16 Anyone who owned/operated a car has had problems.

17 Dunno. Kinda have to find the girl first.

18 Yes

19 If you aren't, you aren't alive.

20 Yes

21 No

22 If you haven't, you never lived.

14/22

Subtract the three questions that 99% of people on this continent would answer identically (16, 19, & 22).

11/22

Subtract subjective/contextual questions (6, 12, 13, 15, 17).

8/22
Somewhere around 30%

I'll always see right through them. I'm too unique. Eye-wink

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Beyond Saving wrote:Well, if

Beyond Saving wrote:

Well, if you shoot enough videos of enough of these stupid tests, every once and awhile the astrologer is going to get lucky and have a good day and be 77% right at making extremely broad statements. I can find hundreds of videos of these astrologers being made to look like the fools they are. Chances are that if you take all of those statements and make them about yourself somewhere around 60-70% of them will apply to you. 

 

1. Over 40 you put on a little more weight

2. A difficult father relationship OR separation from father OR he wasn't around as much

3. Ever study or like martial arts OR dancing

4. A bit of a clown/comedian

5. Have "at times" strong speech

6. Been a lot of places OR done a lot of things

7. Wealthy OR have attracted wealth

8. Good looking

9. Good dresser

10. Charismatic and attractive

11. Has some detail ability

12. Tends to put other people forward

13. A great supporting person

14. Bushy eyebrows

15. High aesthetic values

16. Has had car problems

17. Will have good children

18. Has a positive relationship with children

19. Is currently facing obstacles

20. Had a good relationship with parents

21. Have more than one marriage 

22. Ever do something first and think about the consequences later

 

Take the test yourself. How many of these statements apply to you?

For me

1- still under 40 but I'm sure it will be true, I already have been noticing that the beer belly is a bit harder to get rid of than it used to.

2-True, my father is a jerk because he is too much like me. 

3-True

4-True

5-True

6-True, kind of, note this is very subjective. I have traveled quite a bit, but many people travel significantly more than me. I have only been to two continents and five countries. I know people who have traveled five or six continents and dozens of countries, so compared to them I am a country bumpkin. So have I traveled "a lot"? 

7-True, again subjective, I'm not a millionaire but I consider myself well off. Note that the astrologer knew the age of the person and knew he was male. Senior males are the wealthiest segment of our population.

8-True, again subjective, most people do believe they are good looking. I'm not going to be winning any beauty contests, but I look better than the old guy in the video.

9-False, I am a terrible dresser, I don't even bother buying my own clothes because I am so incompetent at it according to every woman I have ever dated.

10- True, (I have a big ego Sticking out tongue)

11- True

12- False, I'm a selfish SOB, most people are but virtually no one admits it so 99% of people would probably agree with this statement, even if it wasn't true.

13- True, I might be selfish but I support everyone I care about as best I can.

14- False

15- False, not really into art.

16- True, who hasn't had car problems?

17- False, will never have kids

18- False

19- True

20- True, again pretty subjective. Compare to statement 2. I feel that both are true. I have had a lot of conflict with my father, but I still love both of my parents and feel that the relationship is more or less "good".

21- False, one marriage I am currently divorced so the possibility of another marriage in the future exists. Note the statement was broad enough that "well you aren't in a second marriage now but you probably will be" has some potential. 

22- True, who doesn't sometimes?

 

So for me he got 15/22 which is around 68% and that is taking all of the statements and not adjusting for gender and age. It is called the Forer effect. When you make generalized statements, people will subjectively apply them to themselves and are inclined to agree with them. When you have knowledge of age and gender it makes it easier to make more specific statements that will apply to that person, especially when you are talking about kids/marriages.  

 

I think you summed it up very nicely Beyond.

“It is proof of a base and low mind for one to wish to think with the masses or majority, merely because the majority is the majority. Truth does not change because it is, or is not, believed by a majority of the people.”
― Giordano Bruno


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I have a hard time

I have a hard time believing that the planets and the stars have any effect on my personality anyway. Rather self-centered of me to think that wouldn't it be ?

That's just like the horoscopes in the newspaper, they always seem to apply to my sign, but then again, all the other horoscopes seem to apply to me as well. They are so broad they are meaningless.

Richard Dawkins proved how fraudulent this was in his documentary, Enemies of Reason.

“It is proof of a base and low mind for one to wish to think with the masses or majority, merely because the majority is the majority. Truth does not change because it is, or is not, believed by a majority of the people.”
― Giordano Bruno


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Quote:I have a hard time

Quote:
I have a hard time believing that the planets and the stars have any effect on my personality anyway. Rather self-centered of me to think that wouldn't it be ?

 

I don't believe in astrology or anything like that, but if we're all made up of star stuff, then it might follow that certain planetary alignments,  the passing of Haley's Comet or the position of the moon causing heavy tidal activity may have some sort of passive effect on our physiology.  Maybe it's all just a placebo effect in some people and, like religion, they want to believe it so bad that it seems real, but it's one of those aspects of life on Earth that we may never get a undisputed answer to, but I welcome criticism on the issue so, I might check out Enemies of Reason.

"When the majority believes in what is false, the truth becomes a quest." - Me


harleysportster
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Sage_Override wrote:Quote:I

Sage_Override wrote:

Quote:
I have a hard time believing that the planets and the stars have any effect on my personality anyway. Rather self-centered of me to think that wouldn't it be ?

 

I don't believe in astrology or anything like that, but if we're all made up of star stuff, then it might follow that certain planetary alignments,  the passing of Haley's Comet or the position of the moon causing heavy tidal activity may have some sort of passive effect on our physiology.  Maybe it's all just a placebo effect in some people and, like religion, they want to believe it so bad that it seems real, but it's one of those aspects of life on Earth that we may never get a undisputed answer to, but I welcome criticism on the issue so, I might check out Enemies of Reason.

I see your point, what I was referring to were things like, "You will fall in love today" or "Your friends will find something special about you today" type of readings. As for your other points, there are no doubts that weather, sunlight or tidal activity of the moon have an effect on our planet.

“It is proof of a base and low mind for one to wish to think with the masses or majority, merely because the majority is the majority. Truth does not change because it is, or is not, believed by a majority of the people.”
― Giordano Bruno


Sage_Override
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Quote:I see your point, what

Quote:
I see your point, what I was referring to were things like, "You will fall in love today" or "Your friends will find something special about you today" type of readings. As for your other points, there are no doubts that weather, sunlight or tidal activity of the moon have an effect on our planet

 

Oh yeah, no doubt that stuff has an effect on the planet itself, but the actual inhabitants of our planet well, that's still up in the air.  The whole "full moon" thing, for example, causing strange behaviors in humans is a prime example.  As for tarot reading, palm reading or gypsy fortune telling, that's all, of course, pure bullshit.  Hell, I used to read palms in junior high for my classmates and can still do it today.  I have my runes and the charts showing where your heart line/life line is, the lines on your fingers representing the planets, etc.  The tradition of it is fascinating, but after I became an atheist, stuff like that was just put into a box and treated as just another relic from my past.

"When the majority believes in what is false, the truth becomes a quest." - Me


Beyond Saving
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Sage_Override wrote:Quote:I

Sage_Override wrote:

Quote:
I see your point, what I was referring to were things like, "You will fall in love today" or "Your friends will find something special about you today" type of readings. As for your other points, there are no doubts that weather, sunlight or tidal activity of the moon have an effect on our planet

 

Oh yeah, no doubt that stuff has an effect on the planet itself, but the actual inhabitants of our planet well, that's still up in the air.  The whole "full moon" thing, for example, causing strange behaviors in humans is a prime example. 

 

The moon has a substantial effect on many animals. There is increasing evidence that whitetail deer base their daily rhythm on the moon cycle rather than the sun. And moon phases have been successfully used by fishermen for years to predict what times fish are likely to be active.

 

It makes sense that it would effect humans to some extent- when you have a full moon at night it isn't as dark so naturally it is easier for a human to move around and do things than a night with a new moon. Usually when I'm hunting I don't bother with a watch to tell me when legal hunting hours are over, I just head back to camp/home when I can't see so well and I'm usually really close to the legal time. When there is a full moon it is pretty easy to stay past legal hours. I imagine when people had limited lighting available that a full moon would cause them to stay outside longer, maybe work the fields longer or whatever they did a little bit later at night. Leading to potentially less sleep which = more accidents or crazy shit done by slightly sleep deprived people.

 

In a modern city where everything is lit 24/7 by artificial means I am skeptical that a full moon has any noticeable effect on people. Maybe that is why people in cities seem batshit crazy 24/7...

If, if a white man puts his arm around me voluntarily, that's brotherhood. But if you - if you hold a gun on him and make him embrace me and pretend to be friendly or brotherly toward me, then that's not brotherhood, that's hypocrisy.- Malcolm X