Religious Will Rise as Secular Birth Rates Fall

Atheistextremist
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Religious Will Rise as Secular Birth Rates Fall

Eric Kaufmann
September 20, 2010


Pope Benedict's recent visit to Britain has been just as controversial as John Paul II's tour of 1982. But the 180-degree shift in the axis of conflict reveals how British society has changed over the past 28 years.

John Paul, the first pontiff to set foot on British soil, raised Protestant hackles. Today, Benedict riles Britain's rising secularists, who decry Catholic paedophilia, conservatism and superstition. Among the few Protestants who still practise, many now see Catholics as their religious allies and support the papal visit. The faithful fear, and seculars cheer, the idea that the end of Christianity is nigh. But is it?

On the face of it, the trends seem unassailable: the Eurobarometer finds that across 10 west European countries between 1975 and 1998, the proportion of weekly attenders plummeted from 38 per cent to 16 per cent. In Britain, where just 7 per cent of Christians attend church each week, half of those between the age of 18 and 34 say they have no religion compared to just 20 per cent of over-55s.

Even in the United States, where 85 per cent report a religious faith, Robert Putnam recently discovered the share of young white Americans claiming ''no religion'' has reached 35-40 per cent.

A victory for secularism? Not so fast. Young white Americans may be more secular than their parents, but while whites made up nearly 90 per cent of the US population in 1965, this will drop to 50 per cent by the 2040s. Immigrants and their children - largely Catholic - will bulk ever larger.

Just 2 per cent of Americans were Catholic at independence and former Catholics are the third largest denomination in the country. Nonetheless, projections show that Catholics will sharply increase their share of the US population. Catholicism, not secularism, will be the largest religion among young Americans in 2050.

Most people around the world get religion the old-fashioned way: by birth. This means demographic shifts greatly affect the fate of religion, and by extension secularism. And the deck is heavily stacked against the Christopher Hitchens and Richard Dawkins of this world: 97 per cent of the world's population growth takes place in the poor religious tropics.

In 1950 Europe (including the USSR), North America and Australasia made up a sizeable 30 per cent chunk of world population. Today they account for just 11 per cent of those under the age of 15. In 1950 there were 2½ Europeans for every African. By 2050 the United Nations projects four Africans for every European.

Therefore, according to the World Religious Database, the proportion of the world that is religious increased from 81 per cent to 85 per cent between 1970 and 2000, and is projected to rise to 87 per cent by 2025. Applying UN population estimates to Gallup World Poll data predicts a rise in global church attendance from 54 per cent to 58 per cent over the next four decades.

Even the much maligned Catholic Church has increased its membership in recent years - by 12 per cent since 2000, most of it in Africa and Asia.

We live in an interconnected world, so Third World population growth is also reshaping the West. We see this in the increasingly non-European cast of cities such as London, Los Angeles, Toronto and Sydney. Along with ethnic change comes religious change as the faithful replace ageing secular white majorities. Christian attendance in London is about where it was in 1989 while numbers have dropped 40 per cent in the rest of the country. Overall, the capital is more religious because Muslims, Sikhs and Hindus add to its religious growth. These patterns have nothing to do with religious awakening and everything to do with the fact that 60 per cent of London's Christians are non-white and many of the rest come from eastern Europe.

Will the newcomers adopt secularism? The children of Caribbean Christian immigrants in Britain have secularised and intermarried in large numbers but African Pentecostalists are determined to avoid their fate. Second-generation Muslims, Sikhs and Hindus are also as religious as their parents, in part because their religion is relevant as a marker of identity.

In the long run, things may be different. Family sizes are rapidly falling across Africa and Asia and the world as a whole will experience voluntary population decline for the first time in the second half of our century. Surely the end of the global demographic transition will check religious demography?

Well, not quite. Global migration is irrelevant in Israel, where ultra-Orthodox Jews, availing themselves of modern medicine while rejecting its mores, have increased from several per cent of Jewish school pupils in 1960 to a third today. With three or four times the birth rate of secular Jews and impeccable retention of children in the fold, they will form the majority of Jews in Israel and the diaspora in the second half of this century.

In the US, Mormons and conservative evangelicals have nearly twice the birth rate of non-religious Americans and have grown rapidly. In the cities of the Muslim world, women who strongly support the sharia have twice the family size of Muslim women who oppose it. Even in Europe, white women who are regular church attenders - even at the same education level - will bear up to a half-child more than their non-religious sisters.

It's not that religious fundamentalists are having more kids. It's that secular women are having fewer. Over generations this becomes a profound force for social change, and its repercussions for our certainties of secularism, enlightenment and liberal progress cannot be ignored.

Eric Kaufmann is author of Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth: Demography and Politics in the Twenty-First Century, and will speak at the Festival of Dangerous Ideas at Sydney Opera House on October 3.

 

"Experiments are the only means of knowledge at our disposal. The rest is poetry, imagination." Max Planck


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Sooooo, wait.Kaufmann

Sooooo, wait.

Kaufmann wrote:
Most people around the world get religion the old-fashioned way: by birth. This means demographic shifts greatly affect the fate of religion, and by extension secularism. And the deck is heavily stacked against the Christopher Hitchens and Richard Dawkins of this world: 97 per cent of the world's population growth takes place in the poor religious tropics.

And THIS guy wrote a book and is invited to speak at the Sydney Opera House????!!!!!!

I'm not so much concerned with him as I am this absolutely retarded notion.

The secular and/or atheist population is certainly not dependent upon BIRTH RATES. Nor even upon upbringing.

I need to read this book. If this is the core principle in it then we need to have a serious chat.

'Our' population (demographic) is derived from the others. Josh = raised catholic then protestant now atheist. And so forth throughout 99% of the members of this board and many others. The idea that secular women have fewer children means that there will be a worldwide shortage of atheists is disgustingly stupid.

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Atheistextremist
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Mmmmm

 

I was raised protestant but am the only member of my family - including nephews and nieces and their children - who is a non believer.  Perhaps, given this subjective reality presented by my own family, I see this stuff as being more real to me. I am the only non believer in a family of 39 people and I have no children myself, so rather than seeming stupid, the assertions seem relevant. Nevertheless, I didn't really see this as a particularly earth shattering or terrifying revelation but it is curious. I was going to comment on my post something along the lines of - come on folks, let's get humping. But that seemed pointless.

I'm sure we'd all agree the bulk of the world's population are soft believers who don't think hard enough about the issues to become atheists yet refuse to get involved in the organised church. Oz has about 65 per cent believers but only 15 per cent church attendance.

Regardless of this gabble, I think it's proved that low birth rates in developed countries are a sign of women having a choice - given choice and control, women will opt for fewer children. This means a stable population, ultimately.

Further points are that Australia's primary migrant intakes are UK, NZ, India and China. None of these countries brings in any clashingly hysterical belief system, except perhaps, the New Zealanders. We have about 1.5 per cent muslims drawn from dozens of nations, which is irrelevant in the broad scheme of things.

Our population growth is 2 per cent at present and climbing. Pointedly, 40 per cent of growth is natural and 60 per cent is through immigration but we have a high level of intermarriage, particularly with Chinese aussies whose secularism and family/business focus seem to fit with us best.

A Festival of Dangerous Ideas is an interesting concept but not completely mental, given the freaky shit we have witnessed in the last ten years. 

No I haven't read the book, either.

"Experiments are the only means of knowledge at our disposal. The rest is poetry, imagination." Max Planck


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I don't care.  I am NOT

I don't care.  I am NOT having more children - besides it would be a miracle twice over if I got pregnant.  Once for the tubal ligation and once for menopause.  And in vitro is not on my to do list, either.  It's someone else' turn.

-- I feel so much better since I stopped trying to believe.

"We are entitled to our own opinions. We're not entitled to our own facts"- Al Franken

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Nor is this the first time

Nor is this the first time that someone has expressed anxiety about how many kids the more superstitious and weak-minded masses giving rise to...

“A meritocratic society is one in which inequalities of wealth and social position solely reflect the unequal distribution of merit or skills amongst human beings, or are based upon factors beyond human control, for example luck or chance. Such a society is socially just because individuals are judged not by their gender, the colour of their skin or their religion, but according to their talents and willingness to work, or on what Martin Luther King called 'the content of their character'. By extension, social equality is unjust because it treats unequal individuals equally.” "Political Ideologies" by Andrew Heywood (2003)


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Atheistextremist

Atheistextremist wrote:

 

Just 2 per cent of Americans were Catholic at independence and former Catholics are the third largest denomination in the country. Nonetheless, projections show that Catholics will sharply increase their share of the US population. Catholicism, not secularism, will be the largest religion among young Americans in 2050.

In the US, Mormons and conservative evangelicals have nearly twice the birth rate of non-religious Americans and have grown rapidly. In the cities of the Muslim world, women who strongly support the sharia have twice the family size of Muslim women who oppose it. Even in Europe, white women who are regular church attenders - even at the same education level - will bear up to a half-child more than their non-religious sisters.

It's not that religious fundamentalists are having more kids. It's that secular women are having fewer. Over generations this becomes a profound force for social change, and its repercussions for our certainties of secularism, enlightenment and liberal progress cannot be ignored.

 

 

1. Catholics do not believe in birth control.

2. One of my best friends in middle school was mormon. She knew a good bit about her parents sex life which was kinda weird. Anyway, she said her mom had all this sexy lingerie and also that her friends from church told her their parents were basically the same. She said they wear the sexy lingerie under their everyday clothes. I'm not stating this as fact of course because obviously I didn't check for myself. Yuck! But from what I gather, they are sex freaks. Possibly the reason they have nearly twice the birth rate. Oh and my friend was one kid out of seven.

3. Um apparently the secular women are smarter? Just because you can procreate doesn't always mean you should.

If all the Christians who have called other Christians " not really a Christian " were to vanish, there'd be no Christians left.


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Just watch idiocracy.

Just watch idiocracy.


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There are definitely some

There are definitely some Christians who have taken "Be fruitful and multiply" as a personal challenge...

"I do this real moron thing, and it's called thinking. And apparently I'm not a very good American because I like to form my own opinions."
— George Carlin


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rebecca.williamson wrote:2.

rebecca.williamson wrote:

2. One of my best friends in middle school was mormon. She knew a good bit about her parents sex life which was kinda weird. Anyway, she said her mom had all this sexy lingerie and also that her friends from church told her their parents were basically the same. She said they wear the sexy lingerie under their everyday clothes. I'm not stating this as fact of course because obviously I didn't check for myself. Yuck! But from what I gather, they are sex freaks. Possibly the reason they have nearly twice the birth rate. Oh and my friend was one kid out of seven.

 

OK, the idea that mormons consider the magic underwear as sexy lingerie is just creepy.

 

For those who did not know, here is what they wear under their clothes:

 

NoMoreCrazyPeople wrote:
Never ever did I say enything about free, I said "free."

=


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But you gotta remember all

But you gotta remember all those poor religious people don't carry as much influence or clout as the middle class and upper middle class in the west.

As long as the bulk of the scientific/educational community doesn't fall for this religious hocus pocus then we can continue to progress as a civilization.  Poor people are religious because they have no hope and turn to religion as a coping mechanism! It's just a COP-OUT!

As Stephen Hawking's professor said the Christian god is dead and if Christians controlled society we'd be living in 13th century!

 

Click here to find out why Christianity is the biggest fairy tale ever created!! www.nobeliefs.com/exist.htm www.JesusNEVERexisted.com


EXC
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Atheistextremist wrote:It's

Atheistextremist wrote:

It's not that religious fundamentalists are having more kids. It's that secular women are having fewer. Over generations this becomes a profound force for social change, and its repercussions for our certainties of secularism, enlightenment and liberal progress cannot be ignored.

This is a big factor in the Islamification of Europe and eventually the Americas unless we change the immigration and welfare laws(and enforce them). I don't see an solution except starving the beast, cutting off welfare benefits to breeders and mandator birth control. Otherwise it's Sharia law.

 

“Religion is regarded by the common people as true, by the wise as false, and by the rulers as useful.” Seneca


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EXC wrote:Atheistextremist

EXC wrote:

Atheistextremist wrote:

It's not that religious fundamentalists are having more kids. It's that secular women are having fewer. Over generations this becomes a profound force for social change, and its repercussions for our certainties of secularism, enlightenment and liberal progress cannot be ignored.

This is a big factor in the Islamification of Europe and eventually the Americas unless we change the immigration and welfare laws(and enforce them). I don't see an solution except starving the beast, cutting off welfare benefits to breeders and mandator birth control. Otherwise it's Sharia law.

 

LOL..I wouldn't go THAT far!

The reason why many American women are have fewer kids is because America is probably the most hedonistic culture on earth (save Holland).  Face it,, it's a pain in the ass to raise a bunch of kids and it's a big burden and takes a lot of your time and your life away!

The reason why I don't think Sharia and Islam will ever make serious inroads in America is because it takes away most all the pleasure in life and people will NEVER accept that in a pleasure loving society!  I do agree with you though that they need to tighten immigration controls especiall on Muslims.  I know for a fact that after 9/11 it is already harder for people from places like Pakistan to emigrate to the U.S.  They don't let them come here as easily as they did before 9/11.

It Islamization of America could get worse but steps need to be taken to control it.  I see what's happened in Europe but if you go to major cities in Europe you still mostly see good ol fashioned Europeans since many of the the Muslims have their own neighborhoods sort of like the ghettos over here.

Click here to find out why Christianity is the biggest fairy tale ever created!! www.nobeliefs.com/exist.htm www.JesusNEVERexisted.com


EXC
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JesusNEVERexisted

JesusNEVERexisted wrote:

LOL..I wouldn't go THAT far!

So you like being responsible to feed, clothe, house and educate other people children while having to say over their choice?

JesusNEVERexisted wrote:

The reason why many American women are have fewer kids is because America is probably the most hedonistic culture on earth (save Holland).  Face it,, it's a pain in the ass to raise a bunch of kids and it's a big burden and takes a lot of your time and your life away!

What is your definition of "hedonistic"? I believe everyone is a hedonist, but most everyone is in denial(kind of like atheism). I think the pursuit of pleasure and avoidance of pain should be the central goal of every person and society.

Actually I think the reason Americans have few kids is were the most stressed out and sexually repressed culture. In cultures with high birthrates, women normally start having sex babies in their teens. In the USA parents are often horrified by this. They want their kids to go to college, get some material wealth before having a family.

The lower birth rate has more to do with materialism and the stress of keeping up with the Jones'. If the USA were a 'hedonistic' society, sex and drugs would be legal and moral.

 

JesusNEVERexisted wrote:

The reason why I don't think Sharia and Islam will ever make serious inroads in America is because it takes away most all the pleasure in life and people will NEVER accept that in a pleasure loving society!

How did Islam take over societies like Afghanistan that were once Buddhist? Intimidation, indoctrination and breeding. The Buddhists were too pacifist.

The laws of biology tells us that what survives is that which reproduces and passes on genetics, values, memes to the next generation. Islam is totally focused on achieving this domination. Through indoctrination of children, war, terror, etc... A plague doesn't care how people feel, it just seeks to spread. Unless people say no religious intimidation and the welfare state supporting Islamic breeders, there is no alternative but Sharia for Europe and Amerika.

 

JesusNEVERexisted wrote:

It Islamization of America could get worse but steps need to be taken to control it.  I see what's happened in Europe but if you go to major cities in Europe you still mostly see good ol fashioned Europeans since many of the the Muslims have their own neighborhoods sort of like the ghettos over here.

You go to the tourist places to enjoy yourself, they are focused on domination via breeding, indoctrination and terror, so you don't see them. They don't need pleasures, they are like zombies with religion as their brainwashing opiate. They are just biding their time.

 

“Religion is regarded by the common people as true, by the wise as false, and by the rulers as useful.” Seneca


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LOL...EXC, how long do you

LOL...EXC, how long do you think it will take for Europe and America to abolish their court system and go Sharia?

Click here to find out why Christianity is the biggest fairy tale ever created!! www.nobeliefs.com/exist.htm www.JesusNEVERexisted.com