# Rolling a 1,000,000 sided die.

SSBBJunky
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Rolling a 1,000,000 sided die.

You often see the argument ''the chances of we existing are so unlikely that goddidit''.

One question though, isn't this basically the same thing as rolling a 1,000,000 sided die, getting the number 56,873, and then saying that the chances of that number popping up are so unlikely that God must have made that number appear?

please point out any flaws here.

''Black Holes result from God dividing the universe by zero.''

phooney
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The "unlikeliness" of it is

The "unlikeliness" of it is only noteworthy if the side of that die was guessed ahead of rolling it by 1 person.

My favourite example is something that can be done with a simple deck of cards:

Shuffle and deal out in a straight line all 52 cards in a deck, face up.  By theistic reasoning you’ve just performed a miracle, because the odds of you dealing the cards in exactly that order was 1 in 80,658,175,200,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

How could you have possibly dealt those cards like that?  Not only that, but every time you shuffle and re-deal the odds of dealing out exactly like that will be the same.

These kind of long odds happen all the time.

SSBBJunky
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phooney wrote:By theistic

phooney wrote:

By theistic reasoning you’ve just performed a miracle

sooo.... I'm Jesus?

''Black Holes result from God dividing the universe by zero.''

RatDog
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If you role a 1,000,000

If you role a 1,000,000 million sided dice the chances of rolling 56,873 is only one in a million.  Lets say rolling 56,873 means that life as we know it comes about. Based on this information can you say that the probability of life coming about is only in one million?  The answer is no!  You can't make such a prediction with out more date.  For instance what if the side 0 being roles also corresponds with some kind of life coming about.  What if the side 532,908 also corresponds with some kind of life.  As far as we know every side of the dice might lead to some different form of life in which case the probability of life coming about is 100 percent!

SSBBJunky
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RatDog wrote:If you role a

RatDog wrote:

If you role a 1,000,000 million sided dice the chances of rolling 56,873 is only one in a million.  Lets say rolling 56,873 means that life as we know it comes about. Based on this information can you say that the probability of life coming about is only in one million?  The answer is no!  You can't make such a prediction with out more date.  For instance what if the side 0 being roles also corresponds with some kind of life coming about.  What if the side 532,908 also corresponds with some kind of life.  As far as we know every side of the dice might lead to some different form of life in which case the probability of life coming about is 100 percent!

I understand that and agree, but the point was that saying God must've been involved because the chances of life coming about like this are so unlikely is meaningless because it is just one of the ways it could've happened and it just happened to be this way.

''Black Holes result from God dividing the universe by zero.''

theotherguy
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SSBBJunky wrote:You often

SSBBJunky wrote:

You often see the argument ''the chances of we existing are so unlikely that goddidit''.

One question though, isn't this basically the same thing as rolling a 1,000,000 sided die, getting the number 56,873, and then saying that the chances of that number popping up are so unlikely that God must have made that number appear?

please point out any flaws here.

An even more astonishing thing: let's say we have a dice that is triggered to vaporize unless a 56,873 is rolled. Let's say we throw a trillion identical dice of this sort into a room. There is a great hiss of vapor, and there are 1,000 dice scattered around. Someone then comes into the room, and says "Wow, all of these 1 million sided dice say 56,873! It's a miracle!"

That's practically analagous to saying "Gee, the chances of life appearing on a given planet are like one in a billion, but here we are! It's a miracle!" The crux is, we wouldn't be here to observe life if it didn't occur.

SSBBJunky
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theotherguy wrote:SSBBJunky

theotherguy wrote:

SSBBJunky wrote:

You often see the argument ''the chances of we existing are so unlikely that goddidit''.

One question though, isn't this basically the same thing as rolling a 1,000,000 sided die, getting the number 56,873, and then saying that the chances of that number popping up are so unlikely that God must have made that number appear?

please point out any flaws here.

An even more astonishing thing: let's say we have a dice that is triggered to vaporize unless a 56,873 is rolled. Let's say we throw a trillion identical dice of this sort into a room. There is a great hiss of vapor, and there are 1,000 dice scattered around. Someone then comes into the room, and says "Wow, all of these 1 million sided dice say 56,873! It's a miracle!"

That's practically analagous to saying "Gee, the chances of life appearing on a given planet are like one in a billion, but here we are! It's a miracle!" The crux is, we wouldn't be here to observe life if it didn't occur.

hehe, good one.

''Black Holes result from God dividing the universe by zero.''

Kevin R Brown
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Rolling a... million...

Rolling a... million... sided... dice....

*fapfapfapfapfapfapfapfapfapfapfapfapfapfap*

...Oh... yes...!!!

...Wait. What this about probability, now?

Quote:
"Natasha has just come up to the window from the courtyard and opened it wider so that the air may enter more freely into my room. I can see the bright green strip of grass beneath the wall, and the clear blue sky above the wall, and sunlight everywhere. Life is beautiful. Let the future generations cleanse it of all evil, oppression and violence, and enjoy it to the full."

- Leon Trotsky, Last Will & Testament
February 27, 1940

ClockCat
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I'd say it's more like

I'd say it's more like rolling a hypothetical infinite-sided die, and saying life will happen if it lands on a number, which it has an unlimited amount of.

Life is probably everywhere, we just don't see very much yet of anything. Space is very large, and we are very tiny.

Of course, if there is intelligient life out there, the first thing we will have to do is send missionaries to convert them to whatever religion we have that is popular at the time.

Maybe it will be The Church of Cthulu Latter Day Saints.

Theism is why we can't have nice things.

SSBBJunky
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Kevin R Brown wrote:Rolling

Kevin R Brown wrote:

Rolling a... million... sided... dice....

*fapfapfapfapfapfapfapfapfapfapfapfapfapfap*

...Oh... yes...!!!

...Wait. What this about probability, now?