North Korea launches rocket, defying world: WW III?

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North Korea launches rocket, defying world: WW III?

Isn't this how the last couple world wars got started? Guess this means the J-man'll be comin' 'round the bend any minute now, right? Eye-wink

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I wouldn't worry about this

I wouldn't worry about this starting WWIII. Despite their meglomaniacal grandstanding, the North Koreans don't have a pot to piss in. 3 million North Koreans have starved to death in the last decade. Despite the size of their military, 90% of their airforce is obsolete. American aircraft from Okinawa could crush the bulk the of the North Korean artillery command before any shells fell on Seoul. The North Koreans are simply no match for the powers which surround it, since they are among the most powerful nations on Earth and North Korea, a Stalinist hell hole, is in total economic ruin. It is impossible to conceal from a satellite the loading of a nuclear device onto an ICBM, and the Americans have the most modern and elite air force on Earth with the exception of Israel. The North Koreans don't have the radar and AA capability to stop a surgical American strike to flatten the launch pad.

"Physical reality” isn’t some arbitrary demarcation. It is defined in terms of what we can systematically investigate, directly or not, by means of our senses. It is preposterous to assert that the process of systematic scientific reasoning arbitrarily excludes “non-physical explanations” because the very notion of “non-physical explanation” is contradictory.

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Quote: Stalinist hell

Quote:
Stalinist hell hole,

Or as we kitten BBQing atheists like to call it "heaven"........Oh wait, no thats the assbackwards fearmongering stereotype Christians falsely believe about us cootie spreaders.

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deludedgod:As always, thank

deludedgod:

As always, thank you for your perspective! Much appreciated!!! Smiling

In a "what if" scenario I could  envision Japan reacting, then allies on either side reacting to those very reactions, and then, voila! WWIII!  It could happen right? Anything's possible yeah?

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Quote:In a "what if"

Quote:

In a "what if" scenario I could  envision Japan reacting, then allies on either side reacting to those very reactions, and then, voila! WWIII!

Japan, as per the constitution created under the auspices of MacArthur's occupation forces in the 1950s, has an extremely limited offensive capability, although that is changing due to North Korea's grandstanding. The real worry isn't the military capability of North Korea. If worst comes to worst, USPACOM (the combatant command of the US military responsible for the Asiatic region) can flatten the North Korean military capability in a matter of days. The real worry is that if North Korea collapses, the humanitarian crisis will be vast beyond all comprehension (of course, North Korea is currently a humanitarian crisis, I'm not saying it isn't).

"Physical reality” isn’t some arbitrary demarcation. It is defined in terms of what we can systematically investigate, directly or not, by means of our senses. It is preposterous to assert that the process of systematic scientific reasoning arbitrarily excludes “non-physical explanations” because the very notion of “non-physical explanation” is contradictory.

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Right, and you are more

Right, and you are more versed in these issues then I. BUT! For argument's sake, if N. Korea is flattened, would Russia not react? It's hard for me to imagine them sitting on the sidelines here, but then again, I'm not up on Russia's current military might.

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Quote:would Russia not

Quote:

would Russia not react?

Probably, but almost certainly not militarily. But I find it impossible to imagine that this could lead to anything even close to nuclear war. The Cold War is over.

"Physical reality” isn’t some arbitrary demarcation. It is defined in terms of what we can systematically investigate, directly or not, by means of our senses. It is preposterous to assert that the process of systematic scientific reasoning arbitrarily excludes “non-physical explanations” because the very notion of “non-physical explanation” is contradictory.

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deludedgod wrote:  

deludedgod wrote:

 

Quote:
In a "what if" scenario I could envision Japan reacting, then allies on either side reacting to those very reactions, and then, voila! WWIII!

 

Japan, as per the constitution created under the auspices of MacArthur's occupation forces in the 1950s, has an extremely limited offensive capability, although that is changing due to North Korea's grandstanding. The real worry isn't the military capability of North Korea. If worst comes to worst, USPACOM (the combatant command of the US military responsible for the Asiatic region) can flatten the North Korean military capability in a matter of days. The real worry is that if North Korea collapses, the humanitarian crisis will be vast beyond all comprehension (of course, North Korea is currently a humanitarian crisis, I'm not saying it isn't).

 

What DG said +++

 

And amplified by the basic fact that generals are never ready for the next war but rather they are ready for the last war.

 

In this specific case, we are ready to duke it out with the Soviet Union. With regards to Kim Jong (mentally)ill, I have fairly little concern that he will really get his panties in such a knot that he is willing to tangle with the United States.

 

Here is the deal:

 

A single Ohio class submarine is capable of launching 24 Trident D5 missiles, each of which can later deploy up to twelve nukes. Even president Obama/Jesus is not cleared to know where they are but there are at least 50 of them somewhere in the world at any given moment.

 

Now it is important for me to point out that I am not actually advocating that we drop hundreds of nukes on the PRNK. There is absolutely no valid tactical reason for doing that. However, our ability to do that is trivial. We can.

 

Kim Jong Il needs to function on that basis.

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Major whoops there.  

Major whoops there.

 

For some reason, the forums occasionally refuse to respond to me and it can take a couple of hours for my posts to get through. Here, I don't know why, nor do I care. However, in this specific case, the discussion moved on while I was waiting.

 

I am not saying that we should turn the PRNK into a sheet of glass. Only that we have the ability to do so and that has to be a tactical consideration on the part of everyone involved.

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OK, let's get realistic

OK, let's get realistic here. The question is under what consideration could nuclear weapons actually be used, specifically on the Korean peninsula?

 

OK, much is being made in the news about the PRNK developing rockets that can reach Japan or possibly the USA. Now tell me what the fuck business Kim Jong Il has fucking with either of us.

 

The real answer is that there is no reason at all. Japan is simply not relevant to him. The USA is the damned elephant in his living room. He has no reason to attack either of us and every reason not to.

 

So who might he decide to attack?

 

Well, the wet dream for him is reunification of the north and the south, presumably under his rule. Since we don't really know what his nuclear arsenal really consists of, let's say for shits and giggles that he has a dozen small bombs.

 

Now tell me why he would want to nuke the very cities that he wants to bring into his control? Obviously, he will never do that. To do so would render the whole point of his posturing moot.

 

Now I turn to: can those who are opposed to his posturing use nukes against him?

 

Here I suspect that most people have a poor idea of what a nuclear weapon can actually do. Sure, a nuke is a really fucking big bomb. However, it is still a bomb with finite potential. A city that is built on a flat plain can be essentially scraped clean. Used in the mountains of the Korean peninsula, a nuke is just not going to do more than take out one valley. Several nukes can take out several valleys but apart from that, they are not tactically different from other really big bombs.

 

Let's have yet another dose of reality here. He has a huge army ready to move south if conditions ever warrant it being worth his while. We have an even larger army ready to ruin his plans should he decide to do so. There is about a mile between the two armies and we have predator drones flying over his camps hourly. He simply cannot even think about getting ready to move his army without us knowing about it.

 

Even if he did, counting both sides, a conventional war would have about a million deaths in the first week. After the first week, he will simply not have the capability to take the south regardless of whatever else happens.

 

In my earlier post that was rendered moot, I observed that we can destroy his entire military in about ten minutes. I really don't think that we should but we can. Yet, if we did, we don't even have to use the city buster bombs that we made for duking it out with the Soviets.

 

Should we decide to go that route, we have the weapons that we designed to deal with a limited nuclear war in Europe. That war would have been a bad idea and the limited nuclear war in Korea would not be a better idea but it would be a trivial act for us to do if the need presented itself.

 

Seriously, Kim Jong Il knows at least as much as anyone else. He has to know this much. He does not want nuclear weapons because he thinks that he can get away with using them. He wants nuclear weapons because they have the potential to change the game at the bargaining table.

 

If we are willing to engage in the stupid posturing that such weapons lead us to, then he has no chip to use. We made these things for the purpose of “saber rattling” towards the Soviet Union. Now we have them. It might be a nice idea to live in a nuclear free world but the fact that we don't live in such a world leads to the fact that even with nukes and advanced missiles, the PRNK is bringing a knife to a gun fight.

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dassercha wrote:BUT! For

dassercha wrote:

BUT! For argument's sake, if N. Korea is flattened, would Russia not react?

As Deludedgod pointed out, North Korean doesn't have a pot to piss in. It offers nothing of strategic, political or economic benefit to Russia.

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deludedgod wrote:If worst

deludedgod wrote:

If worst comes to worst, USPACOM (the combatant command of the US military responsible for the Asiatic region) can flatten the North Korean military capability in a matter of days.

Given an actual mission, with an actual nuclear threat, and I'd say "hours", because they'd have backup. A galvanized American nation is the exact opposite of strategically desirable. What are there, 20 B-2s? At how many thousands of pounds of payload each?

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deludedgod wrote:I wouldn't

deludedgod wrote:

I wouldn't worry about this starting WWIII. Despite their meglomaniacal grandstanding, the North Koreans don't have a pot to piss in. 3 million North Koreans have starved to death in the last decade. Despite the size of their military, 90% of their airforce is obsolete. American aircraft from Okinawa could crush the bulk the of the North Korean artillery command before any shells fell on Seoul. The North Koreans are simply no match for the powers which surround it, since they are among the most powerful nations on Earth and North Korea, a Stalinist hell hole, is in total economic ruin. It is impossible to conceal from a satellite the loading of a nuclear device onto an ICBM, and the Americans have the most modern and elite air force on Earth with the exception of Israel. The North Koreans don't have the radar and AA capability to stop a surgical American strike to flatten the launch pad.

The only thing I could add to this is the fact that this is hardly the first time NK has fired a missle. There was one that went by Japan just a few years ago.

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OK, COOL! Thanks for all the

OK, COOL! Thanks for all the input y'all...


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HisWillness wrote:  

HisWillness wrote:

 

deludedgod wrote:
If worst comes to worst, USPACOM (the combatant command of the US military responsible for the Asiatic region) can flatten the North Korean military capability in a matter of days.

 

Given an actual mission, with an actual nuclear threat, and I'd say "hours", because they'd have backup. A galvanized American nation is the exact opposite of strategically desirable. What are there, 20 B-2s? At how many thousands of pounds of payload each.

 

Jeeeeezus.

 

Make that about ten minutes for nukes. I know that my last post was probably TLDR but a single Ohio class submarine commands more firepower than any single nation on earth (apart from the one that built them that is...).

 

Even so, I would ask you to at least skim through what I said. Basically, no nukes are going be used in that part of the world for some basic practical reasons.

 

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

 

Let me get back to DG's point here. The forecast of a few days is not realistic. Remember how long it took us to get entrenched in Afghanistan? Now say that the shit did hit the fan. How long will it take to do over again?

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Quote:The forecast of a few

Quote:

The forecast of a few days is not realistic.

I was just talking about defeating the North's military capability, I wasn't even considering occupation.

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deludedgod wrote:Quote:The

deludedgod wrote:

Quote:

The forecast of a few days is not realistic.

I was just talking about defeating the North's military capability, I wasn't even considering occupation.

And I was just considering the elimination of offensive capability, so I think we were all talking past each other.

To be clear: There would be no sane reason for anyone to use nuclear weapons at all ever. Tactically it's bad, strategically it's bad, ecologically it's bad ... the list just goes on.

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Quote:I wouldn't worry about

Quote:
I wouldn't worry about this starting WWIII. Despite their meglomaniacal grandstanding, the North Koreans don't have a pot to piss in. 3 million North Koreans have starved to death in the last decade. Despite the size of their military, 90% of their airforce is obsolete. American aircraft from Okinawa could crush the bulk the of the North Korean artillery command before any shells fell on Seoul. The North Koreans are simply no match for the powers which surround it, since they are among the most powerful nations on Earth and North Korea, a Stalinist hell hole, is in total economic ruin. It is impossible to conceal from a satellite the loading of a nuclear device onto an ICBM, and the Americans have the most modern and elite air force on Earth with the exception of Israel. The North Koreans don't have the radar and AA capability to stop a surgical American strike to flatten the launch pad.

Well, no, 'World War III' isn't really a concern at all. China and Russia, while historically supportive of North Korea, are terribly unlikely to come to their assistance in the current political climate; the nations simply do not share their prior commonalities, and while China clearly still gives a shameful amount of respect to Kim, it's easy to see that the two powers have grown worlds apart since the Korean war. China has moved forward with the rest of the world - North Korea has remained in the past.

I am very, very concerned for South Korea right now, however.

 

As bankrpt and outdated as North Korea's military is, as we have previously seen in the Korean War, low-tech brute force offensives from out of left field can quite easily catch even the most observant and technically advanced opponent off-guard. This long-range missile test I find frightening for two big reasons:

1) There is, essentially, no good option for South Korea in the event of strictly a long-range missile attack out of the proverbial blue. Yes, the United States (as well as the Russians, and I would like to think that they would also act to prevent a nuclear strike against South Korea) can likely spot the missile being loaded and act (there are also low-tech counter-intelligence maneuvers that the North Korean army coul employ to conceal their activities... though, frankly, they're so poorly trained and funded that I doubt they would think to do any)... but then what? They would have to get permission from SecDef to order a strike, scramble the aircraft, fly to the coordinates and deliver their payload without being shot down by SAMs even without an initial SEAD action.

I really don't like those kind of odds. It's not like loading an ICBM onto a launcher and firing it at Seoul would be a difficult or lengthy procedure, even for North Korea. 

The thing is... I also don't know what else to do. In this instance, Kim is essentially untouchable until he actually does something, as the consequences of disarming them pre-emptively by force would be catastrophic (as DeludedGod already mentioned) for every unfortunate soul in the country.

 

2) Kim Jong Ill is totally insane. Telling him that you would retaliate against him would likely illicit a sneer and little else. Do remember - he is not even the official president of the country. His dead father owns that title, and Kim refers to him as the ruling power! The United States blowing away his palace would be inconsequential to him so long as his last moments were spent smiling at a burning horizon over which the 'impure' South Koreans used to live.

 

I don't fear for my own safety. It's laughable to suggest that North Korea could ever, in it's current state, pose a credible threat to North America (or, really, any industrialized nation with missile interception technology). However, I do not want to live in a world where a modern, booming, secular society was erased by theological madmen who we foolishly handed the eraser to. South Korea's future ought to be very, very bright - watching it get swallowed by an old monster that should never have been led out onto the Earth would leave me feeling rather sick.

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Quote:but then what? They

Quote:

but then what? They would have to get permission from SecDef to order a strike, scramble the aircraft, fly to the coordinates and deliver their payload without being shot down by SAMs even without an initial SEAD action.

When it comes to American aircraft, I really wouldn't worry about North Korean air defense systems. Remember, we're talking about a country that still fields Mig-23s, aircraft which have been obsolete since the Vietnam War. North Korean SAMs don't have the radar capability to match the track the extremely advanced radar-countermeasure technology that the Americans employ. Remember, the amount the Americans spend on military technology is about 100 times the size of the North Korean economy. They don't have the chance.

"Physical reality” isn’t some arbitrary demarcation. It is defined in terms of what we can systematically investigate, directly or not, by means of our senses. It is preposterous to assert that the process of systematic scientific reasoning arbitrarily excludes “non-physical explanations” because the very notion of “non-physical explanation” is contradictory.

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To be fair, WWII is still

To be fair, WWII is still technically not over. Several countries never signed peace treaties, and still officially are hostile and at war.

 

I would not worry about North Korea though. Really, they aren't that much of a threat to anyone. People make a bigger deal about it than it deserves.

 

That's like saying Iraq was going to attack us, when they already had their hands full and are across an ocean.

 

North Korea is less of a threat than China is, owning so much of the international markets. They can economically pound us into dust. That would ruin the nation in a heartbeat, without ever needing missiles. It would just hurt them a bit in the process, and we haven't given them a good enough reason yet.

 

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ClockCat wrote:North

ClockCat wrote:
North Korea is less of a threat than China is, owning so much of the international markets. They can economically pound us into dust. That would ruin the nation in a heartbeat, without ever needing missiles. It would just hurt them a bit in the process, and we haven't given them a good enough reason yet.

 

Dude, have you been to Wallmart recently?

 

“Made in China” is pretty much the only thing which they even bother to stock. The fact of the matter is that those of us who are in the USA are basically addicted to buying really cheap crap that is made in China.

 

Yes, China can give us the economic equivalent of anal sex. It will hurt at first but we can adapt to the new model and go from there.

 

The difference between China fucking us up the ass and international economics is that China will get butt hurt in the process.

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deludedgod wrote:When it

deludedgod wrote:

When it comes to American aircraft, I really wouldn't worry about North Korean air defense systems.

No kidding. If I were an American pilot, I'd feel like I was a thief in the night. They wouldn't even know what to point the SAMs at.

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ClockCat wrote:North Korea

ClockCat wrote:

North Korea is less of a threat than China is, owning so much of the international markets. They can economically pound us into dust. That would ruin the nation in a heartbeat, without ever needing missiles. It would just hurt them a bit in the process, and we haven't given them a good enough reason yet.

They would be ruined if they tried to interfere with trade with the US. We are their #1 trading partner. They know the kind of economic devastation that would result for them if trade between China and the US halted. It would hurt them a lot more than just 'a bit.' This is the whole point of neoliberal economics (besides all the deregulation stuff). Trade enough with a country and you won't go to war with them.

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dassercha wrote:Isn't this

dassercha wrote:

Isn't this how the last couple world wars got started? Guess this means the J-man'll be comin' 'round the bend any minute now, right? Eye-wink

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Oh my God!

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dassercha wrote:Right, and

dassercha wrote:

Right, and you are more versed in these issues then I. BUT! For argument's sake, if N. Korea is flattened, would Russia not react? It's hard for me to imagine them sitting on the sidelines here, but then again, I'm not up on Russia's current military might.

Do you think China wants dozens of nukes flying in their direction?

THEY would nuke NK before we even got a missle off the ground. MOREOVER, by the time EVEN ONE missle got off the ground, 2 billion Chinamen would squash NK like a fuckin bug.

You don't fucking get it.... Taiwan is the thorn in China's side that we stick to them, and NK is their proxy to respond to that. If not for China, NK would fucking starve.
NK IS China. They don't take a SHIT with out China approving and knowing.

MOREOVER... the Repugs and Demonrats are PLAYING YOU DUMN ASS! The entire thing... Taiwan and NK are both: !) a distraction from domestic issues that are more important, 2) a SUPPOSED justification for a SUPPOSED strong military, 3) a way for the Demonrats and Repugs to prove they are "strong on defense" while ignoring the fact that 10%+ unemployment is NOT being strong on defense, AND DON'T EVEN TELL ME that unemployment is NOT at 10% it's higher!!!
4) a VERY major sector of the economy of California and other States is built entirely on building weapons! Take that funding away, and they've even higer unemployment.
6) How the fuck can you justify spending 1/3 of our budget on our useless misdirected military unless you create a war in Iraq, convince morons (i.e. Americans) that NK is gonna nuke us, that Iran is gonna nuke Europe, and the U.S., and the Middle East, and those crazy Muslims are EVERYWHERE.
(Granted there are a ton of crazy Muslims, BUT JUST AS MANY crazy Chrustians and Jews that are killing people as well.)

Please think once in a few years, huh? Put the Goddamn pieces together so it doesn't have to be spelled out for you like an 8 year old. God this shit pisses me off.


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NK and War

Although the US is capable of hitting the DPRK hard from a distance, they will still have to send in ground troops and that's when all hell will break loose for the US military. Remember Viet-Nam? Asians have a very different culture than ours, especially when it comes to conflict and war. Plus, it will create such tension among other nations that the conflict is sure to broaden....


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WorstCaseScenario

WorstCaseScenario wrote:
Asians have a very different culture than ours,

I agree.

 

Our revels now are ended. These our actors, | As I foretold you, were all spirits, and | Are melted into air, into thin air; | And, like the baseless fabric of this vision, | The cloud-capped towers, the gorgeous palaces, | The solemn temples, the great globe itself, - Yea, all which it inherit, shall dissolve, | And, like this insubstantial pageant faded, | Leave not a rack behind. We are such stuff | As dreams are made on, and our little life | Is rounded with a sleep. - Shakespeare