Pope Defies Reason... surprise surprise

Hambydammit
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Pope Defies Reason... surprise surprise

 

In a mind-numbing display of backward logic, the pope has declared that the use of condoms increases the spread of AIDS.  How could a person possibly reach this conclusion except by beginning with the conclusion and trying to find some way to make the facts fit?

I know, I know... giving out condoms encourages people to have sex, and somehow or another, this actually increases the spread of AIDS.  But let's get down to the nitty gritty of this claim, shall we?

Let's suppose for a moment that condoms are 95% effective at blocking the HIV virus when used properly.  Don't quibble with me about the number.  It's just a number, and I'm not claiming it as the gospel truth.  This is about demonstrating a principle.  What this means, in practical terms, is that a person infected with HIV could reasonably expect to have sex with a hundred women, and we should be quite surprised if significantly more than four or five women contracted HIV.

So, let's suppose we have two individuals -- Evil McEvil and Reynold Responsible.  Both carry the HIV virus, but EE never uses a condom, while RR always does.  The thing is, a single encounter with an HIV infected individual is not a guarantee to become infected.  It's kind of hard to find accurate information about this.  A google search has yielded figures from 1/2000 (for a single encounter) to 1/2.  Just for the sake of simplicity, let's say that you have a 1/5 chance in a single encounter to contract HIV from an infected partner.  Again, don't hate on me for the number.  It doesn't matter.

So, let's say that RR has sex with 100 women.  His condom breaks 5 times, and there's a 1/5 chance that he's going to infect his partner.  So, out of one hundred sexual encounters, we should expect, on average, one infection out of a hundred.

Now, EE also has sex with 100 women.  Since he is unprotected the whole time, we should expect around 20 women to become infected.

Let's return to the suggestion that handing out condoms encourages people to have more sex.  Even if that's true, RR would have to have sex with 2,000 women to infect as many people as EE having sex with 100.

I don't want to put words in the Pope's mouth.  As far as I know, he hasn't explicitly stated that giving out condoms encourages more sex, but regardless of whether condoms are 95% effective, or 80% effective, or 99.5% effective, the numbers are clear.  For condoms to NOT help curb the spread of AIDS, people would have to have a LOT more sex after being given condoms.

Anyone have any reasonable grounds for believing that's what would happen?  Any studies from schools where condoms were passed out?  Do they have 20 times more sex?

 

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One problem with the

One problem with the Catholic position is the presumption that using condoms and having sex are equivalent behaviours. We've all heard the argument that if people ignore the Catholic teaching on sex before or outside of marriage, then they should have no problem ignoring the Catholic churches anti-condom stance. The implication being that they are theologically inconsistent to apparently adhere to one church dogma (not using condoms) whilst ignoring another (not having sex outside/before marriage). There are numerous problems here. Using or not using condoms is not the same having or not having sex. Sex is natural, and will always happen. You cannot suppress it. Given this reality, promoting condom usage is the only practical solution to the HIV/Aids problem. Then there is the fact that many/most do not willingly reject condoms or reject them based on sound information, indeed many simply do not have supplies available to them, and/or have not been educated, or worse, have been told misinformation.

The Catholic church are obviously not the reason for the HIV/Aids problems in Africa; there is a lot of political problems (such as aids denialism) and local superstitions that all add to the problems, nevertheless, the church adds further unnecessary and dangerous reinforcement to the issue, and the authority, influence and spread of the church compounds the problem further.

One issue which is totally ignored by the church and its supporters is babies born with the disease. I couldn't find figures on the survival rate of those born with the disease, but if they live to an age where they have sex then we have an example where some inflicted with the disease have not violated the churches dogma on sex and so the churches presumptions for denying condoms doesn't hold. It put a spanner in the works of the churches implicit suggestion that if you do not have sex outside or before marriage but instead save yourself you won't get the disease and therefore do not require condoms to begin with.

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The Pope's position on

The Pope's position on condoms is completely wrong factually and morally.

He did NOT just say distributing condoms in Africa is of little use, which from surveys already referred to is demonstrably incorrect. he actually said that using condoms may well increase the spread of AIDS, which is insanely incorrect.

He deserved to be treated with the utmost contempt.

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jcgadfly wrote:1. Then you

jcgadfly wrote:

1. Then you educate them in general and add in the other stuff as they can understand it. Isn't that better than "Condoms will send you to hell - don't use them"?

You are getting closer to my point.
But you don't understand how we move the condoms away as a solution.
The problem is the education, but that problem comes from the culture and the traditions.
USA can not educate their african-americans and the USA potentials are much greater than Africa's potentials.

African blacks will extinct before we educate them.
That is why the pope says that condoms are not the solution for Africa.

jcgadfly wrote:

2. Didn't you post earlier how the black South Africans go to school, read the AIDS ads, bury their loved ones and still don't use protection? Self-contradiction or an indication that you really don't know what you're talking about?

I don't contradict myself.
Zuma also attended school, but he didn't use condom although he knew that the woman is HIV positive.
That is the way they are.
You better get familiar with black culture and mentality, before you speak about them.

 


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BobSpence1 wrote:The Pope's

BobSpence1 wrote:

The Pope's position on condoms is completely wrong factually and morally.

He did NOT just say distributing condoms in Africa is of little use, which from surveys already referred to is demonstrably incorrect. he actually said that using condoms may well increase the spread of AIDS, which is insanely incorrect.

He deserved to be treated with the utmost contempt.

I am only supporting the argument that condoms are not the solution for Africa.
I don't share Pope's understanding about church, community and political rules.
I am theist, but to me the church is as BAD as it is for any atheist.
Yet, as I said in my previous comment, Africa would be worst place without the church.

What works for white people does not work for black people in Africa.
We already did the damage by invading their space and culture.
Come live in Africa for few years and you'll feel the difference between our cultures, mentality and values.


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Truden wrote: jcgadfly

Truden wrote:

jcgadfly wrote:

1. Then you educate them in general and add in the other stuff as they can understand it. Isn't that better than "Condoms will send you to hell - don't use them"?

You are getting closer to my point.
But you don't understand how we move the condoms away as a solution.
The problem is the education, but that problem comes from the culture and the traditions.
USA can not educate their african-americans and the USA potentials are much greater than Africa's potentials.

African blacks will extinct before we educate them.
That is why the pope says that condoms are not the solution for Africa.

jcgadfly wrote:

2. Didn't you post earlier how the black South Africans go to school, read the AIDS ads, bury their loved ones and still don't use protection? Self-contradiction or an indication that you really don't know what you're talking about?

I don't contradict myself.
Zuma also attended school, but he didn't use condom although he knew that the woman is HIV positive.
That is the way they are.
You better get familiar with black culture and mentality, before you speak about them.

 

Yeah, you did. Earlier you said that black South Africans went to school and read all the ads. In the post I replied to where I saw the contradiction, you said they couldn't be educated about condoms beause they couldn't read (which is why I made point 1).

If there are cultural/traditional blockades to overcome, then work to overcome them. Having the Pope come to Africa and lie about condoms isn't helping. Nor is throwing up one's hands and saying "Let them die".

Why do you and the Pope want more dead black people?

"I do this real moron thing, and it's called thinking. And apparently I'm not a very good American because I like to form my own opinions."
— George Carlin


Vastet
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This is just ridiculous

This is just ridiculous beyond belief.

Education ABOUT condom use as well as general sexual education is the solution. Ignoring condoms or boycotting them CANNOT FUCKING HELP. Abstinence policies = EPIC FAIL. Proven over and over and over again.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/04/13/AR2007041301003.html

http://www.guttmacher.org/media/inthenews/2007/04/18/index.html

http://www.mathematica-mpr.com/abstinencereport.asp

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abstinence-only_sex_education

http://www.heritage.org/Research/Abstinence/BG1533.cfm

EVEN FOX KNOWS IT:

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,308898,00.html

Bloody satan on a jesus stick.

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Truden wrote:Thomathy wrote:

Truden wrote:

Thomathy wrote:
In case my post was missed, Truden, please read it and then tell me what the fuck is wrong with you!

I didn't miss anything.
You miss the point.

Live the f'ing percetnige out.
I might be wrong with few percents but I promise you that in whole Africa is it over 90%.
I have friends working as doctors in hospitals and I know the real problem.
Every month people that I know die from AIDS.
I speak to my black friends about everything including this problem.
I know how they think.
I know their mentality.

Why don’t you comment on the example with Jacob Zuma.
It is very indicative and shows the real problem.
But most of you guys don’t really want to talk about the problem
You want to show how stupid theists are and how clever atheists are.

Whites in Africa are very religious but they don’t have AIDS.
In South Africa blacks go to school.
They watch TV, read adds about AIDS, bury their relatives who die from AIDS and still don’t care about protection.

I gave you example with gas helmet but their favorite is - “can you salt the bread through the glass”

How would you comment on this?
How would you comment on Zuma’s personal example and do you think that if the future president does not use condom the rest of the blacks are cleverer than him?

 

1) You may have friends that are docters but that is besides the point we already know there is a problem, we are saying education will fix it. You don't seem to think so.

2) go find out what jacob zuma's education level is. We are arguing that education will fix it. If he is educated you have a point if not you don't

3) Whites in South Africa do have AIDs just a lesser percentage. Funny White people in South Africa are genrally far better educated than black people, apartheid and all that.

4) yes some wild speculation here 99.99% of blacks are smater than Jacob Zuma. With the possible exception of Julious malemba although he is probably smarter to.

5) I don't put some Africans not using condom at te feet of the pope. It isn't really his fault. But he is part of the problem, he is making it worse

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Whatever goes upon four legs, or has wings, is a friend.
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No animal shall sleep in a bed.
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No animal shall kill any other animal.
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Tapey
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Tapey wrote:Truden

double post, somthing i forgot to add

 

3) Whites in South Africa do have AIDs just a lesser percentage. Funny White people in South Africa are genrally far better educated than black people, apartheid and all that. Also I would argue that white people in South Africa are not very religious. Yes most believe in god but not enough to follow the popes don't use condoms thing. They believe in god and to hell with the rest that comes with it, have you ever met a young earth creationist in South Africa? I'm sure there are a few but really few and far inbetween. That is what I have experienced. Religion takes different roles depending on your economic status. If you have nothing else you are going to cling to your religion way more. Religion is in some way a crutch, if you have nothing you are likely uneducated. This is why what the pope is doing is dangerous. Why say condoms are not the answer to AIDs in africa when they clearly can help, expessially when you don't have a better solution

Whatever goes upon two legs is an enemy.
Whatever goes upon four legs, or has wings, is a friend.
No animal shall wear clothes.
No animal shall sleep in a bed.
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No animal shall kill any other animal.
All animals are equal.


Truden
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jcgadfly wrote:Why do you

jcgadfly wrote:

Why do you and the Pope want more dead black people?

That is so ignorant to say.
I don't know what the pope wants, but certainly I don't want people to die.

They will die because we need time to change their culture, traditions, education and attitude before they start using condoms.
By the time we do that they will be extinct.
So, we better think of other solution if we want them alive.

To push the condoms as solution is actually to want African blacks dead.

Let me tell you something else in this connection.
Few years ago leading pharmaceutical companies wanted to introduce in South Africa medicines for suppressing the AIDS effect on sick people.
With that medicines the sick people start feeling better and live for few more years longer.
The government refused the program because it would increase the risk more people to be infected (longer sexual activity for sick people greater risk to infect more people)

Of course the BIG money won and we have more and more HIV and AIDS positive people which feel better and live for few more years.

So, what is better - to increase the risk and have more sick people or to let sick people die faster?
I don't have the answer and I don't think that there is wisdom which could give the right answer.

Life is not like you read it in books and like you see it in movies.
Our moral values are put on trial and sometimes we don't have other choice but to choose the smaller evil.


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Tapey wrote:3) Whites in

Tapey wrote:

3) Whites in South Africa do have AIDs just a lesser percentage.

Why say condoms are not the answer to AIDs in africa when they clearly can help, expessially when you don't have a better solution

I didn't mean that there is no white people sick from AIDS. Of course there are sick white people, but with blacks it turned epidemic.
And I don't say that we should not introduce condoms. Few posts back I said that we should try everything.

My point is that we should not think and rely on condoms as solution.


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Finally.Well in that case,

Finally.

Well in that case, the discussion can end completely right now. Noone is advocating a condom-only strategy. So there's nothing left to argue.

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Tapey wrote: They believe

Tapey wrote:

 They believe in god and to hell with the rest that comes with it, have you ever met a young earth creationist in South Africa? I'm sure there are a few but really few and far inbetween. 

I don't mean to support the theists here, but what? Virtually every christian I've ever known (including me at one point) is a YEC. Granted,I went to a christian school that taught YEC as fact, but most of the ones around here are evangeical fundies anyway. I could probably find you 70 YEC's I know. You probably just have a more atheist circle of friends than me and haven't met as many fundies

Psalm 14:1 "the fool hath said in his heart there is a God"-From a 1763 misprinted edition of the bible

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This is getting redudnant. My patience with the unteachable[atheists] is limited.

Argument from Sadism: Theist presents argument in a wall of text with no punctuation and wrong spelling. Atheist cannot read and is forced to concede.


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Loc wrote:Tapey wrote: They

Loc wrote:

Tapey wrote:

 They believe in god and to hell with the rest that comes with it, have you ever met a young earth creationist in South Africa? I'm sure there are a few but really few and far inbetween. 

I don't mean to support the theists here, but what? Virtually every christian I've ever known (including me at one point) is a YEC. Granted,I went to a christian school that taught YEC as fact, but most of the ones around here are evangeical fundies anyway. I could probably find you 70 YEC's I know. You probably just have a more atheist circle of friends than me and haven't met as many fundies

lol then we know totally differant people. Even as a christian I have never even heard of the idea. I literally had never heard of it before I got the internet, a couple months ago. My church taught creation as metaphorical and in reflection I see that they made sure you understood it as metaphorical. You learn things everyday. But are the YEC you know in the minority? I certainly hope so.  Perhaps you are right and I just know the wrong people. I don't really have an atheist circle of friends, but most the christians I no really just pay lip service to god and jesus and the like. Just out of curiousity what church do they go to if you know? 

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Whatever goes upon four legs, or has wings, is a friend.
No animal shall wear clothes.
No animal shall sleep in a bed.
No animal shall drink alcohol.
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For my 2 cents, I have never

For my 2 cents, I have never in my life met someone who fit the definition of YEC face to face who was willing to say as much. But I have known thousands of christians.

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Tapey wrote: lol then we

Tapey wrote:

 

lol then we know totally differant people. Even as a christian I have never even heard of the idea. I literally had never heard of it before I got the internet, a couple months ago. My church taught creation as metaphorical and in reflection I see that they made sure you understood it as metaphorical. You learn things everyday. But are the YEC you know in the minority? I certainly hope so.  Perhaps you are right and I just know the wrong people. I don't really have an atheist circle of friends, but most the christians I no really just pay lip service to god and jesus and the like. Just out of curiousity what church do they go to if you know? 

I can't even comprehend that. I've never met any christians who take creation metaphorically. The YEC's I know aren't in the minority, the majority of christians I know are YEC's. There are a couple of churches I've been to, and they all teach a literal 6 day creation. Like Destiny Harvest, YWP Christian fellowship, Hillcrest Christian fellowship.. I really don't get how you never heard of it and you were a christian

Psalm 14:1 "the fool hath said in his heart there is a God"-From a 1763 misprinted edition of the bible

dudeofthemoment wrote:
This is getting redudnant. My patience with the unteachable[atheists] is limited.

Argument from Sadism: Theist presents argument in a wall of text with no punctuation and wrong spelling. Atheist cannot read and is forced to concede.


Tapey
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Truden wrote:Tapey wrote:3)

Truden wrote:

Tapey wrote:

3) Whites in South Africa do have AIDs just a lesser percentage.

Why say condoms are not the answer to AIDs in africa when they clearly can help, expessially when you don't have a better solution

I didn't mean that there is no white people sick from AIDS. Of course there are sick white people, but with blacks it turned epidemic.
And I don't say that we should not introduce condoms. Few posts back I said that we should try everything.

My point is that we should not think and rely on condoms as solution.

Ah sorry I didn't see that. All I am saying is condoms are the best solution we have atm surely the most humane. I am against the Pope saying no no to condoms without providing a better solution. It very well may be that condoms are not the solution to AIDS in Africa, (I am keeping an open mind), Not because of the reasons you give though.  But until that better solution comes comments like that from the Pope just make the situation worse. I do believe condoms are the best solution to AIDs in africa we have. Condoms can stop the spread of AIDs therefore they can be the solution in Africa. I really don't see how you can argue against that. 

P.S. is your point really that we should not think and rely on condoms as a solution. Is your point really that we should not think? Maybe my bad english combined with my tierdness is making me read that wrong? Maybe you mean we should think and not rely on condoms as a solution? I could agree with that if you change it to We should think and not really on condoms as the only solution but part of it. After all education is just as important. Regular testing is also important. etc. But from what I have read you seem to think condoms aren't part of the solution. your earlier posts anyway.

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Whatever goes upon four legs, or has wings, is a friend.
No animal shall wear clothes.
No animal shall sleep in a bed.
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All animals are equal.


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Loc wrote:Tapey wrote: lol

Loc wrote:

Tapey wrote:

 

lol then we know totally differant people. Even as a christian I have never even heard of the idea. I literally had never heard of it before I got the internet, a couple months ago. My church taught creation as metaphorical and in reflection I see that they made sure you understood it as metaphorical. You learn things everyday. But are the YEC you know in the minority? I certainly hope so.  Perhaps you are right and I just know the wrong people. I don't really have an atheist circle of friends, but most the christians I no really just pay lip service to god and jesus and the like. Just out of curiousity what church do they go to if you know? 

I can't even comprehend that. I've never met any christians who take creation metaphorically. The YEC's I know aren't in the minority, the majority of christians I know are YEC's. There are a couple of churches I've been to, and they all teach a literal 6 day creation. Like Destiny Harvest, YWP Christian fellowship, Hillcrest Christian fellowship.. I really don't get how you never heard of it and you were a christian

Well it could be because the pastor didn't believe it? He did become an atheist a year after I joined, I left around the same time. Probably because I simpaly wasn't a christian for very long. Really I am amazed by that. I'm willing to guess most of them went to those creepy small christian schools right? Those places freak me out, my bad if you went to one and have fond memories. They are just creepy to me. 

 

P.S. perhaps I should of said instead of never heard of YEC slightly incorrect, I should of said I have had never heard that anyone thought it was literal. I didn't know people took it literally. The though had never crosed my mind that people took it literally.

Whatever goes upon two legs is an enemy.
Whatever goes upon four legs, or has wings, is a friend.
No animal shall wear clothes.
No animal shall sleep in a bed.
No animal shall drink alcohol.
No animal shall kill any other animal.
All animals are equal.


BobSpence
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The Pope is only right to

The Pope is only right to the extent that condoms probably are not the solution to AIDS in Africa, but I doubt that would be the position of any sane people in this area, but to deny that they should be a significant part of controlling the disease is flat out wrong and misguided.

What you regard as a better approach?

You may have found that no 'blacks' you have encountered have any intention of using condoms, but what about the other so-called 'solution', ie abstinence? I would think that it is far less likely that you are going to persuade them to abstain from sex, or even be much more selective about who they have sex with, than to use a condom.

I would be prepared to accept a figure of 99.999% for those who are going to carry on having sex too freely.... whereas condoms do offer a trade-off, some loss of sensation with greatly reduced chance of catching AIDS, so far greater chance of getting some of them to adopt the practice, as the real surveys seem to suggest.

The only other control measures available that I am aware of involve anti-AIDS drugs, which are vastly more expensive than condom distribution accompanied by a well-structured eduction campaign.

Your generalisations about African Americans are even more misinformed, especially about their inability to be educated, especially after the recent Presidential election...

Although I guess you'll just say that many educated 'blacks' have some 'white' blood. Were all the local blacks you spoke to 'pure' African?  Virtually anywhere genetic surveys have been conducted, it has revealed that there are very few societies that have not had much more inter-marriage from widely different groups than conventional 'wisdom' in the society believes.

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Total thread derail, but....

Tapey wrote:

Loc wrote:

I can't even comprehend that. I've never met any christians who take creation metaphorically. The YEC's I know aren't in the minority, the majority of christians I know are YEC's. There are a couple of churches I've been to, and they all teach a literal 6 day creation. Like Destiny Harvest, YWP Christian fellowship, Hillcrest Christian fellowship.. I really don't get how you never heard of it and you were a christian

Well it could be because the pastor didn't believe it? He did become an atheist a year after I joined, I left around the same time. Probably because I simpaly wasn't a christian for very long. Really I am amazed by that. I'm willing to guess most of them went to those creepy small christian schools right? Those places freak me out, my bad if you went to one and have fond memories. They are just creepy to me. 

 

P.S. perhaps I should of said instead of never heard of YEC slightly incorrect, I should of said I have had never heard that anyone thought it was literal. I didn't know people took it literally. The though had never crosed my mind that people took it literally.

 

This is quite a thread derail, but I know this slight confusion about YEC Christianity is a cultural thing. Here in the U.S., the various branches of Protestantism that hold sway over the theological life of this country almost, to a man (so to speak) believe in YEC. I can't even tell you how many times I've had the "evolution is a theory, not a fact" fallacy tossed my way; hell, I used to BE a YEC, and NO amount of scientific evidence could have convinced me to see it as bunk. That took my reading the Messianic 'prophecies' in the OT and seeing the HUGE disconnect between them and the character of Jesus. 

Point is: I'm sure it's different in your country. I'm not sure what factions are big over there, but here it's pretty much shades of Calvinism (even a few preterism believers- which I think makes God into a MASSIVE a-hole... moreso than 'standard' interpretations of 'free will.') Consider yourself lucky, that you don't have to hear some of this garbage coming out of peoples' mouths day in and day out.

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Vastet wrote:Finally.Well in

Vastet wrote:

Finally.

Well in that case, the discussion can end completely right now. Noone is advocating a condom-only strategy. So there's nothing left to argue.

Thanks - I was pushing for education and somehow that got interpreted to me believing that someone should be shoving handfuls of condoms at people.

So, Truden, what purpose does the Pope's lies about condoms spreading disease serve (if it's not killing black people)?

"I do this real moron thing, and it's called thinking. And apparently I'm not a very good American because I like to form my own opinions."
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deludedgod
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The Lancet wrote:The male

The Lancet wrote:

The male latex condom is the single, most efficient, available technology to reduce the sexual transmission of HIV (the virus that causes AIDS)."

The Vatican, in response to demands from The Lancet for the Pope to retract his statement wrote:

The Vatican has said that the pope was expressing a long-standing Vatican position, and that he wanted to stress that a reliance on condoms distracted from the need for proper education in sexual conduct.

How typical of religion to give such a spectacular display of its mind numbing and bone chilling vapidity. Instead of listening to genuine medical experts who know what they are talking about, why not have your policies on this matter be dictated by a ridiculous fool wearing a phallus for a hat?

 

"Physical reality” isn’t some arbitrary demarcation. It is defined in terms of what we can systematically investigate, directly or not, by means of our senses. It is preposterous to assert that the process of systematic scientific reasoning arbitrarily excludes “non-physical explanations” because the very notion of “non-physical explanation” is contradictory.

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Hey, hey: Let's be fair

Hey, hey: Let's be fair here. Getting advice from the Pope is getting advice from a ridiculous fool who is a virgin and who wears a phallus for a hat.

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If you don't believe your non-belief then you don't believe and you must not be an atheist.


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Quote:a ridiculous fool who

Quote:

a ridiculous fool who is a virgin and who wears a phallus for a hat.

Oh, snap.

"Physical reality” isn’t some arbitrary demarcation. It is defined in terms of what we can systematically investigate, directly or not, by means of our senses. It is preposterous to assert that the process of systematic scientific reasoning arbitrarily excludes “non-physical explanations” because the very notion of “non-physical explanation” is contradictory.

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Hey, when you've got it,

Hey, when you've got it, flaunt it, I say.


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crazymonkie wrote:Hey, hey:

crazymonkie wrote:

Hey, hey: Let's be fair here. Getting advice from the Pope is getting advice from a ridiculous fool who is a virgin and who wears a phallus for a hat.

ROTF

 

 

 

 

Poor bastard.

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I'd feel sorry for him if he

I'd feel sorry for him if he wasn't the head of one of the richest and most powerful organizations on the planet. Sure, Napoleon brought the Vatican low a bit, but it's still a hell of a thing.

OrdinaryClay wrote:
If you don't believe your non-belief then you don't believe and you must not be an atheist.