When Will The War With Iran Start?

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When Will The War With Iran Start?

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An Israeli deputy prime minister on Friday warned that Iran would face attack if it pursues what he said was its nuclear weapons programme.

"If Iran continues its nuclear weapons programme, we will attack it," said Shaul Mofaz, who is also transportation minister.

"Other options are disappearing. The sanctions are not effective. There will be no alternative but to attack Iran in order to stop the Iranian nuclear programme," Mofaz told the Yediot Aharonot daily.

He stressed such an operation could only be conducted with US support.

A former defence minister and armed forces chief of staff, Mofaz hopes to replace embattled Ehud Olmert as prime minister and at the helm of the Kadima party.

 

Okay....I am not a conspiracy theorist, but this is getting ridiculous. There have been undertones in the mainstream media, as well as the bulk of Conservative media, of the kind of threat baiting seen in the Iraq pre-invasion case for war. My stepdad, a staunch conservative, even told me a few months ago he believes that "we will probably go there have a minimal aerial assault and show them a lesson." This wasn't a joke. A lot of people, conservatives mainly, think having a preemptive attack on Iran is a sound policy.

Let me just say. I think Iran has a very idiotic, puppet president with the real power resting in the hands of the ayatollahs. The incident last year with the British soldiers and subsequent double speak and coerced Iranian propaganda was childish and despicable. That being said, I think this idea that Iran must suspend all enrichment programs in order "to have a seat at the table to talk" is patently absurd. What is the mentality behind saying, "give in to all of our demands and we will then be willing to negotiate with you." I can't really comprehend this mindset sometimes, other than it is really just a shallow ruse at stalling any type of negotiations in which you already know that their complying with those ultimatatums is a foregone conclusion.

Anyone think this is being blown out of proportion? Or a very real possibility?

“Fear is the path to the dark side. Fear leads to anger. Anger leads to hate. Hate leads to suffering.” Yoda


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My guess

I suspect the war will start in October, just in time for the November elections. That'll be our "October Surprise" for this election. That'll cement the folks who say, "Can't change horses mid-stream, we need a strong leader like McCain," and pretty much guarantee us another four years of massive fuckage.

But hell, even Hillary was making grunting noises in Iran's direction. So it might not just be conservatives who think we need to bend the entire Middle East over an oil dereck and give them a good old-fashioned American ass-fucking.

So, I say, "October."

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Do you think Iran can

Do you think Iran can actually wage war though?  I mean unless we are talking about invasion by Israel (doubtful), Iran has no real way to wage war against anyone...well that is unless they've got the bomb. 

Just more saber rattling going on.  I doubt you'll see anything resembling a war but you might see a firecracker go off.

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razorphreak wrote:Do you

razorphreak wrote:

Do you think Iran can actually wage war though?  I mean unless we are talking about invasion by Israel (doubtful), Iran has no real way to wage war against anyone...well that is unless they've got the bomb. 

Just more saber rattling going on.  I doubt you'll see anything resembling a war but you might see a firecracker go off.

They are a nation of ~90 million people, fairly rich with oil revenue...if you mean they can't wage a sustained war on American soil, well yes of course they can't, we would never let that occur. It all depends on the objective of the mission really. If the mission is to go in to Isfahan and other satellite cities of uranium enrichment to carry out tactical attacks on nuclear sites, there is not much they can do outside of sending bombers to America or using it as justification to destroy the US ally of Israel. But...if it is not an isolated strike, or measure of force with a narrow military objective, and the ultimate plan becomes regime change, domino effect, western-style democratization of the greater middle east, and implementation of a US friendly government, as has been the case with Afghanistan and Iraq....then this "surgical strike" nonsense will be as flimsy as Rumsfeld's "six days, six weeks. I doubt six months" assessment of a war with Iraq.

 

“Fear is the path to the dark side. Fear leads to anger. Anger leads to hate. Hate leads to suffering.” Yoda


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nigelTheBold wrote:I suspect

nigelTheBold wrote:

I suspect the war will start in October, just in time for the November elections. That'll be our "October Surprise" for this election. That'll cement the folks who say, "Can't change horses mid-stream, we need a strong leader like McCain," and pretty much guarantee us another four years of massive fuckage.

But hell, even Hillary was making grunting noises in Iran's direction. So it might not just be conservatives who think we need to bend the entire Middle East over an oil dereck and give them a good old-fashioned American ass-fucking.

So, I say, "October."

That would be awfully sneaky of Mr Bush. I was watching Obama's speech to AIPAC earlier this week on the day he declared himself the Democrat candidate. He did say he would be very harsh diplomatically towards Iran and would consider military action if needed. It didn't sound a bit like that war-mongering son-of-a-Bush that currently resides in the White House.


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nigelTheBold wrote:I suspect

nigelTheBold wrote:

I suspect the war will start in October, just in time for the November elections. That'll be our "October Surprise" for this election. That'll cement the folks who say, "Can't change horses mid-stream, we need a strong leader like McCain," and pretty much guarantee us another four years of massive fuckage.

But hell, even Hillary was making grunting noises in Iran's direction. So it might not just be conservatives who think we need to bend the entire Middle East over an oil dereck and give them a good old-fashioned American ass-fucking.

So, I say, "October."

My money's riding with Nigel on this one.

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"Natasha has just come up to the window from the courtyard and opened it wider so that the air may enter more freely into my room. I can see the bright green strip of grass beneath the wall, and the clear blue sky above the wall, and sunlight everywhere. Life is beautiful. Let the future generations cleanse it of all evil, oppression and violence, and enjoy it to the full."

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Wow... I certainly hope you

Wow... I certainly hope you guys are wrong.  I can't think of a logical reason why you'd be wrong... but I hope you are.

 

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Hambydammit wrote:Wow... I

Hambydammit wrote:

Wow... I certainly hope you guys are wrong.  I can't think of a logical reason why you'd be wrong... but I hope you are.

 

Well, there' not really any strong evidence that we're right, either. With the U.S. military overextended as it is, they'll have to jump through some pretty creative hoops in order to invade Iran before election month. If they at all can do it, though, I think the neo cons will. It's a proven method of keeping power in their hands, it's a nice way to stimulate the economy, it shows the rest of the world just how big their dicks really are... and to top it all off, hey - it's only some stupid Arabs in the desert. Who cares about a bunch of them being blown-up?

*Sigh*

 

The most promising thing about this instance is that it's largely up to the IDF. The U.S. isn't really in a position to simply jump Iran right now. The Iraelis would have to lead the way. From a historical perspective, this fact alone could theoretically keep the peace. The IDF has traditionally been reluctant to go the on the offensive, and with good reason: they're literally surrounded on all sides. If they attacked one arab state, they'd be vulnerable to counter-attacks from the others.

Quote:
"Natasha has just come up to the window from the courtyard and opened it wider so that the air may enter more freely into my room. I can see the bright green strip of grass beneath the wall, and the clear blue sky above the wall, and sunlight everywhere. Life is beautiful. Let the future generations cleanse it of all evil, oppression and violence, and enjoy it to the full."

- Leon Trotsky, Last Will & Testament
February 27, 1940


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War starts next Thursday! lol

Check out this story.  If I had the money to blow I'd bet $20 that this guy uses the Israeli threats as "proof" of his predictions.

http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/story?id=5008225&page=1

 

Seriously, though, I hope everybody keeps their missiles in their pants.  Another pissing contest between religious governments would probably mean a reinstatement of the draft in the U.S. Cursing Man


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razorphreak wrote:Do you

razorphreak wrote:

Do you think Iran can actually wage war though?  I mean unless we are talking about invasion by Israel (doubtful), Iran has no real way to wage war against anyone...well that is unless they've got the bomb. 

Just more saber rattling going on.  I doubt you'll see anything resembling a war but you might see a firecracker go off.

Razor, I think you're probably right. There won't be a full-scale invasion, 'cuz as Kevin points out, we don't have the manpower. But, we do have some planes in the area. I suspect we'll see some "surgical strikes," a-la Clinton's bombing of Iraq. It'll be over and done with before you can say, "But I was using that power plant," and the US will say, "Hey, nuclear facilities. WMDs," and we'll all just move on with a little foreign egg on our face, and McCain sitting in the hot seat.

The whole thing is kinda frightening, though, in a foreign relations sort of way.

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I hope Iran not only wages

I hope Iran not only wages war on USA, but also nukes it.

Any good and smart people living in USA should leave that piece of shit. No offense.


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I'm hoping this won't be the

I'm hoping this won't be the case, but I think a fairly likely scenario is being presented here, given what we've seen from the past decade of "statecraft".  And I'm not just referring to Bush.  A vacillating Europe, a cynical China and Russia and fundamentalist douchebags in both Israel and Iran have all needed to be in place to bring us to our current state of disarray.  And while the US ground forces are overextended, the Air Force has had plenty of time to rearm with JDAMs and JSOWs and I'm certain they're itching to take the new F-22 into a real combat situation.  You wouldn't need to put boots on the ground if you just bombed the shit out of the nuclear centrifuges and the missile assembly sites, now would you? 

It should also be pointed out that Iran's military is actually fairly strong these days.  After a decade of human wave-style offense against the Soviet-armed, US-backed Iraqi forces, they've made certain that they're not going to fight their next war like a bunch of rabid chimps and have seriously upgraded in almost every area (though I don't think their navy's much to speak of).  If you look at the two countries we've invaded in the last few years, you'll notice that neither were economically ready for a fight.  Iran most definitely is, even with the half-assed sanctions under which they're operating.

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Fanas wrote:I hope Iran not

Fanas wrote:

I hope Iran not only wages war on USA, but also nukes it.

Any good and smart people living in USA should leave that piece of shit. No offense.

Go fuck yourself.  Every last morsel of offense intended.

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Aqua_Seal wrote:Check out

Aqua_Seal wrote:

Check out this story.  If I had the money to blow I'd bet $20 that this guy uses the Israeli threats as "proof" of his predictions.

http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/story?id=5008225&page=1

 

Seriously, though, I hope everybody keeps their missiles in their pants.  Another pissing contest between religious governments would probably mean a reinstatement of the draft in the U.S. Cursing Man

 

This used to be my concern, but I've realized that few US politicians would actually want to reinstate the draft, since this time their children would have to serve. I have confidence that we've reached that point of social maturity since Vietnam, if no other.

In fact, there is one rather liberal politician (I'm blanking on his name right now) who argues for the draft for Exactly This Reason: that the people who send other people's kids to war should know what it's like, and maybe there wouldn't be so many wars.

“It is true that in the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king. It is equally true that in the land of the blind, the two-eyed man is an enemy of the state, the people, and domestic tranquility… and necessarily so. Someone has to rearrange the furniture.”


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Quote:In fact, there is one

Quote:
In fact, there is one rather liberal politician (I'm blanking on his name right now) who argues for the draft for Exactly This Reason: that the people who send other people's kids to war should know what it's like, and maybe there wouldn't be so many wars.

The only way I would support a draft is if there was an unambiguous, totally transparent system by which ALL socioeconomic strata were drafted, and -- here's the big caveat -- under no circumstances could congresspeople's relatives be exempted.

In fact, even though Michael Moore is sometimes a little melodramatic, he struck a nerve when he asked that congressman to sign up his children for the draft.

 

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I think that if a country is

I think that if a country is forced to instate a draft to fight a war that something is seriously wrong.  I don't know about you guys but if WWIII broke out with conventional warfare and it was serious enough that America could be overtaken and my family threatened...well you wouldn't need to draft me.  I'd already be in the military and dead before the first enemy troop got off the coastline of America.

I'd rather die fighting them than see them get their hands on my family.

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Watcher wrote:I think that

Watcher wrote:

I think that if a country is forced to instate a draft to fight a war that something is seriously wrong.  I don't know about you guys but if WWIII broke out with conventional warfare and it was serious enough that America could be overtaken and my family threatened...well you wouldn't need to draft me.  I'd already be in the military and dead before the first enemy troop got off the coastline of America.

I'd rather die fighting them than see them get their hands on my family.

Hey, Watcher. Good points.

I have only one wrinkle: what if we started the fight? I mean, I'd still fight to protect my family (even going cross-country to gather them together). But what if we were at fault?

I'd definitely fight them on our soil, to protect your family and mine. But I'm not so sure I'd sign up to go overseas to kill their famillies. And when you sign up for the military, you don't get the choice.

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nigelTheBold wrote:Hey,

nigelTheBold wrote:

Hey, Watcher. Good points.

I have only one wrinkle: what if we started the fight? I mean, I'd still fight to protect my family (even going cross-country to gather them together). But what if we were at fault?

I'd definitely fight them on our soil, to protect your family and mine. But I'm not so sure I'd sign up to go overseas to kill their famillies. And when you sign up for the military, you don't get the choice.

Killing non-combatants is illegal and I would refuse to listen to any order to do so unless there was no way to not (I.E. carpet bombing which recently has been signed by over a hundred countries as prohibited).  There were a lot of German soldiers during WWII that either A) refused to kill civilians or B) commited suicide instead of doing so.

Bottom line.  My family in danger?  I die before them.  But if we really get down to the nitty gritty and it's either their family or mine?  Then it's theirs.

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omg the draft

yup thats what is gonna happin the pres will start the war and draft in october and shoot mcains vampagn down the toilet nope no more chickenhawks here just really dumbass people if their is a war in iran it will be short lived and bush will be too the jig is up and all the people know this war is bs if we wanna make a big difference lets go to burma with full intent of repairing that country bettr yet lets stay home for the next 20 years and fix our own roads and goverment and schools

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Fanas wrote:I hope Iran not

Fanas wrote:

I hope Iran not only wages war on USA, but also nukes it.

Any good and smart people living in USA should leave that piece of shit. No offense.

What the hell?

The US is far from perfect. Our government (especially the Bush administration) has made some unsound decisions in the past few years, and we are, frankly, behind a number of other countries when it comes to environmental consciousness, eradication of religion, and not overeating onesself to death. And in fact, because of my dissatisfaction with the government, I have boycotted Independence Day celebrations since 2004 - not really to make a political statement, but rather, because the current state of affairs doesn't inspire in me a celebratory mood. It's too hard for me to get into it these days.

But despite all the stupidity and blatant disregard for humanity, there are still a lot of smart and wonderful people in this country - some of the people on these forums are good representatives. And we are doing what we can to change things. I personally have taken part in several marches and protests combatting racism, and have also met with professors on starting up an atheist movement on my college campus, since there currently isn't one. I conserve energy and resources when possible. I have goals of pursuing a career in scientific research, in order to better our understanding of the world.

I wouldn't mind moving to Canada or Europe, where I would perhaps be in the company of likeminded people. But circumstances currently prevent me from doing that, as I'm sure is the case for many others. I'm in the middle of obtaining my bachelor's degree with definite plans to go for a master's (and maybe a Ph.D. sometime in the future). I can't just drop out of school and leave behind my ambitions. What good does that do anybody?

Plus, I'd miss my family, and would have to take that into serious consideration before even moving to a different region of the US. On top of that, my family just immigrated here 50 years ago, to give their descendents better opportunities, and would be more than a little insulted to see me toss aside their dream.

I don't know where you live, but I'm sure you wouldn't be too pleased if someone suggested nuking your country. I'm sure you have your own political issues to deal with where you live. Next time, please think before you speak.

 


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What I don't get about the

What I don't get about the whole Nuclear weapons thing is that it's somehow normal for the US, the UK or a Western country to have a nuclear arsenal but if anyone else even thinks about or looks like getting in on the action there's moral outrage. Remind me again, who is the only country to actually drop a nuclear bomb in an act of war? That's right, the US of Arse-erica. Ok they were small by todays standards but the pretty much obliterated two small cities.

I'm not saying that countries like Iran or North Korea should have nuclear weapons. But I don't think we in the west should either. They're a fundamentally bad idea. They aren't even a good deterrant because they're never going to be used.


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Fanas wrote:I hope Iran not

Fanas wrote:

I hope Iran not only wages war on USA, but also nukes it.

Any good and smart people living in USA should leave that piece of shit. No offense.

'No offense'?

"I hope someone gruesomely mutilates you with the most destructive weaponry ever devised, and leaves one of the most civilized, progressive and productive countries in the world a radioactive wasteland. No offense, though."

 

Dude, no country in the world - my neighbors to the south included - is perfect. America is MILES AND MILES culturally ahead of Iran, and just about every other country in the Middle East. Free market ideology and capitalism are our best hope for a future.

And here you stand, saying we should erase it all with death and fire, marching gleefully back into the stone age (and probably extinction shortly thereafter, given that pounding America with nuclear weapons would likely leave enough radiation and fallout drifting through the world to sterilize most of it).

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"Natasha has just come up to the window from the courtyard and opened it wider so that the air may enter more freely into my room. I can see the bright green strip of grass beneath the wall, and the clear blue sky above the wall, and sunlight everywhere. Life is beautiful. Let the future generations cleanse it of all evil, oppression and violence, and enjoy it to the full."

- Leon Trotsky, Last Will & Testament
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I must disagree in the

I must disagree in the strongest possible terms with the previous poster - at least with the final sentence in the second paragraph. Free market ideology and capitalism are utterly abhorrent to me and the world would be a much better place if they never existed. I would move to Western Europe or Canada if I could afford to. Waiting to see - if Barrack Obama wins things should get better, but if McCain wins this asshat country is going to go totally into the toilet.

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Quote:Free market ideology

Quote:
Free market ideology and capitalism are utterly abhorrent to me and the world would be a much better place if they never existed.

Matt, I'm going to say this in the nicest possible way, but there's no way to make it anything but brutal.  Read a book about Game Theory.  Please.  You don't know jack shit about how or why trade, group competition, and the Commitment Model interact, or why Ricardo's Law of Comparative Advantage is so unavoidable.

I'm guessing you have no idea where the mathematical balance between Tragedy of the Commons and Communal Territories lies, or why nucleation of communal territories breeds overconsumption, or why Hardin's authoritarian approach to communal enforcement is at odds with the very competitive strategy that defines human morality.

In short, I know you've read a lot of political and philosophical opinion about how much capitalism sucks, but it's obvious that you don't know some of the real economics behind it.  Well, to be fair, you could be aware of it and just be irrationally clinging to your beliefs.  In any case, I don't know that there's anyone here who is thrilled with the vast divide between rich and poor in America.  This is not a result of capitalism.  It's a result of bureaucracy imposing chaos on otherwise healthy competition model.

I don't argue economics or politics on RRS because I know a hell of a lot more about science than politics, but your statements about capitalism are objectively wrong... scientifically.

 

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greek goddess wrote:Fanas

greek goddess wrote:

Fanas wrote:

I hope Iran not only wages war on USA, but also nukes it.

Any good and smart people living in USA should leave that piece of shit. No offense.

What the hell?

The US is far from perfect. Our government (especially the Bush administration) has made some unsound decisions in the past few years, and we are, frankly, behind a number of other countries when it comes to environmental consciousness, eradication of religion, and not overeating onesself to death. And in fact, because of my dissatisfaction with the government, I have boycotted Independence Day celebrations since 2004 - not really to make a political statement, but rather, because the current state of affairs doesn't inspire in me a celebratory mood. It's too hard for me to get into it these days.

But despite all the stupidity and blatant disregard for humanity, there are still a lot of smart and wonderful people in this country - some of the people on these forums are good representatives. And we are doing what we can to change things. I personally have taken part in several marches and protests combatting racism, and have also met with professors on starting up an atheist movement on my college campus, since there currently isn't one. I conserve energy and resources when possible. I have goals of pursuing a career in scientific research, in order to better our understanding of the world.

I wouldn't mind moving to Canada or Europe, where I would perhaps be in the company of likeminded people. But circumstances currently prevent me from doing that, as I'm sure is the case for many others. I'm in the middle of obtaining my bachelor's degree with definite plans to go for a master's (and maybe a Ph.D. sometime in the future). I can't just drop out of school and leave behind my ambitions. What good does that do anybody?

Plus, I'd miss my family, and would have to take that into serious consideration before even moving to a different region of the US. On top of that, my family just immigrated here 50 years ago, to give their descendents better opportunities, and would be more than a little insulted to see me toss aside their dream.

I don't know where you live, but I'm sure you wouldn't be too pleased if someone suggested nuking your country. I'm sure you have your own political issues to deal with where you live. Next time, please think before you speak.

 

 

Yes, we do have some political issues, even a lot of political issues. But current political condition in USA scares the shit out of me - you told it all. I don't actually want a nuclear war, that would fuck us all up, i just begin to think that this is the only way to end this shit. I would rather like one day to see utopian society free of all those things which makes USA so fucked up now, but its impossible.


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Fanas wrote:I hope Iran not

Fanas wrote:

I hope Iran not only wages war on USA, but also nukes it.

Any good and smart people living in USA should leave that piece of shit. No offense.

 

I am not going to tell you to "Go fuck yourself".

But do you understand that there are HUMANS in both countries that DONT like all the threats going back and forth between the two governments?

A nuke being used in this day and age is going to affect the entire planet, including people you love. I think WE would be better off threating our own respective governments not to use them.

OUR governments are the problem, not all the people living under them.

You have family and loved ones just like I do, just like Christians do, just like Jews do. I know you have loved ones to. If WE as humans want to save our loved ones OUR goverments should give a shit not to use nukes. Otherwise if we do, who we love wont matter because we will be thrown back to fighting with rocks and sticks, and it wont be other countries, it will be our own neighbors.

 

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Watcher wrote:Bottom line. 

Watcher wrote:
Bottom line.  My family in danger?  I die before them.  But if we really get down to the nitty gritty and it's either their family or mine?  Then it's theirs.

Evolutionary survival is a bitch.  Compassion is a luxury.

I completely agree, evolutionary survival seems pretty well hard wired into humans, expressed as the desire to protect one's family. Therefore, this is what basically all iranians will say (but in Persian, mostly). "Americans endanger my family? Screw them, I'll die fighting before that happens!" Probably regardless if they like the ayatollahs or not.