Do the Patriots cheat?

digitalbeachbum's picture

Recently the following article was posted on Yahoo sports.

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/deflate-gate-triggers-stat-spat-as-analysts-attempt-to-solve-why-patriots-don-t-fumble-003107565-nfl.html

While I wait to see if the math is correct, I find it interesting that if their fumbles decreased after 2006 so dramatically, why is it that the players who left other teams then came to the Patriots had their fumbles drop so dramatically. I'd like to see how players who left the team ended up? Did their fumbles increase after leaving?

All in all, I find the coach and the QB to blame. I also find that so many scandals related to the coach have been in the form of cheating or "pushing the limits of the rules". The claim that the equipment staff is to blame is a scapegoat reply and only the QB and the coach are to blame.

Brian37's picture

It would not surprise me,

It would not surprise me, but like everything in life, still need evidence. Nye said that it could not have happened with the temp to that degree. 

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Beyond Saving's picture

 I'm not a Pats fan, but

 I'm not a Pats fan, but this jokers statistics are highly questionable. He doesn't even attempt to consider other factors which would have an effect. For example, he points out Welker, Maroney, Green-Ellis and Woodhead had higher fumbles per touch when they left, but all of them also faced injuries or had very limited touches after leaving. It isn't a great leap to imagine that fumbles while injured are greater than fumbles while not injured. Welker for example has only been with Denver for two seasons, and has been injured or recovering from injury most of that time. As opposed to 6 seasons with the Pats, which allows for lots of healthy time to even out the injury time.

Green Ellis had one terrible game where he fumbled three times- he didn't fumble the rest of the season, despite being the go-to guy and racking up more touches and yards than he ever had in a season with the Pats. The far more likely conclusion is that Green-Ellis had a bad game for some reason we can only speculate about. Maybe his head wasn't in it, maybe he was shaken by his first career fumble, maybe his mother was sick, maybe he was hung over, maybe his girlfriend left him with blue balls- who knows. He went from 30-40 yards a game to 70+ yards a game with Cinci, so obviously he was being used more, yet was fumble free the rest of the season.

Maroney hardly played for the Broncos after taking a year off. One fumble and his average for them was blown.

Woodhead had 1 fumble with the Pats, and has had 1 fumble with the Chargers. He had 250 touches with the Pats and has had 106 with the Chargers. So he is on track to maintain a similar average if he recovers from his injury and puts together a few games without a fumble. 

To do a proper statistical analysis, you have to consider factors like injuries, age and playing time. One thing with the Pats, they rotate players a lot more frequently than any other team in the NFL. Players that have left the Pats for starting posistions without injury all touch the ball a lot more per game with their new team. 

Also, he arbitrarily takes the years 2000-2006 and compares them to 2007+. Why not look at the players who played those years and what they did before- Corey Dillon was the RB 2003-2006, when he retired. It might be worth noting that his fumble rate dropped dramatically- 14 fumbles with Cincy with 969 attempts (1 out of 69 attempts). With NE he fumbled 7 times with 753 attempts. 1 in 107. So perhaps the Belichek coaching staff is just supperior. After all, that is before the alleged cheating. More likely, the big difference is that outside of 2004 (when he had 4 fumbles 1 in 86 attempts) the Pats used him far less. Going from 300+ touches a year to 200 and less. 

Antowain Smith (RB 2000-2002) saw a large drop in his fumble rate when he started working for Belichek. 14 fumbles with 760 attempts (1 in 54) with the Bills. Only 7 fumbles out of 721 touches with the Patriots. 1 in 103 (hmm very close to Dillon with the Pats) and 4 of those fumbles were in 2000. His fumble rate dropped dramatically in 2001 & 2002. 

So it appears that players, even well experienced players, saw a huge decrease in their fumbles when playing for Belichek, even before the alleged cheating. If anything, the stats seem to support that Belichek (or whoever he hires to coach RBs) is a superior coach, at least when it comes to reducing fumbles. Probably because Belichek will bench your ass if your name isn't Tom Brady. 

Also, the Pats have the lowest fumble rate ONLY if you compare them to other outside teams. Compared to all teams, Atlanta and New Orleans are both better. So perhaps the real answer is in how the Pats train/prepare for cold weather games compared to other teams. 

If, if a white man puts his arm around me voluntarily, that's brotherhood. But if you - if you hold a gun on him and make him embrace me and pretend to be friendly or brotherly toward me, then that's not brotherhood, that's hypocrisy.- Malcolm X

digitalbeachbum's picture

Beyond Saving wrote: I'm

Beyond Saving wrote:

 I'm not a Pats fan, but this jokers statistics are highly questionable. He doesn't even attempt to consider other factors which would have an effect. For example, he points out Welker, Maroney, Green-Ellis and Woodhead had higher fumbles per touch when they left, but all of them also faced injuries or had very limited touches after leaving. It isn't a great leap to imagine that fumbles while injured are greater than fumbles while not injured. Welker for example has only been with Denver for two seasons, and has been injured or recovering from injury most of that time. As opposed to 6 seasons with the Pats, which allows for lots of healthy time to even out the injury time.

Green Ellis had one terrible game where he fumbled three times- he didn't fumble the rest of the season, despite being the go-to guy and racking up more touches and yards than he ever had in a season with the Pats. The far more likely conclusion is that Green-Ellis had a bad game for some reason we can only speculate about. Maybe his head wasn't in it, maybe he was shaken by his first career fumble, maybe his mother was sick, maybe he was hung over, maybe his girlfriend left him with blue balls- who knows. He went from 30-40 yards a game to 70+ yards a game with Cinci, so obviously he was being used more, yet was fumble free the rest of the season.

Maroney hardly played for the Broncos after taking a year off. One fumble and his average for them was blown.

Woodhead had 1 fumble with the Pats, and has had 1 fumble with the Chargers. He had 250 touches with the Pats and has had 106 with the Chargers. So he is on track to maintain a similar average if he recovers from his injury and puts together a few games without a fumble. 

To do a proper statistical analysis, you have to consider factors like injuries, age and playing time. One thing with the Pats, they rotate players a lot more frequently than any other team in the NFL. Players that have left the Pats for starting posistions without injury all touch the ball a lot more per game with their new team. 

Also, he arbitrarily takes the years 2000-2006 and compares them to 2007+. Why not look at the players who played those years and what they did before- Corey Dillon was the RB 2003-2006, when he retired. It might be worth noting that his fumble rate dropped dramatically- 14 fumbles with Cincy with 969 attempts (1 out of 69 attempts). With NE he fumbled 7 times with 753 attempts. 1 in 107. So perhaps the Belichek coaching staff is just supperior. After all, that is before the alleged cheating. More likely, the big difference is that outside of 2004 (when he had 4 fumbles 1 in 86 attempts) the Pats used him far less. Going from 300+ touches a year to 200 and less. 

Antowain Smith (RB 2000-2002) saw a large drop in his fumble rate when he started working for Belichek. 14 fumbles with 760 attempts (1 in 54) with the Bills. Only 7 fumbles out of 721 touches with the Patriots. 1 in 103 (hmm very close to Dillon with the Pats) and 4 of those fumbles were in 2000. His fumble rate dropped dramatically in 2001 & 2002. 

So it appears that players, even well experienced players, saw a huge decrease in their fumbles when playing for Belichek, even before the alleged cheating. If anything, the stats seem to support that Belichek (or whoever he hires to coach RBs) is a superior coach, at least when it comes to reducing fumbles. Probably because Belichek will bench your ass if your name isn't Tom Brady. 

Also, the Pats have the lowest fumble rate ONLY if you compare them to other outside teams. Compared to all teams, Atlanta and New Orleans are both better. So perhaps the real answer is in how the Pats train/prepare for cold weather games compared to other teams. 

I still think he pushes the limits of the rules to see how far he can bend them with out breaking.